AI Tokens Surge 10x…Semiconductor Supply Shortage Continues Until 2028 | Kim Jang-yeol, Unistory Asset Management Research Center Head

Summary

Kim Jang-yeol, head of Unistory Asset Management Research Center, argues that AI token consumption is compounding rapidly even as token prices plunge, keeping AI semiconductor demand and memory supply tight through at least 2028. He sees the KOSPI in a 5,500–6,500 range unless earnings and valuation take over, and he uses Nvidia and Alphabet as key AI capex bellwethers. He also reviews Robotis, TES, and Hanmi Semiconductor as differentiated Korean technology ideas.

• KOSPI is viewed as a 5,500–6,500 box under macro and supply/demand noise, with 7,200 possible if earnings dominate.
• AI token volume is seen rising about 10–20x annually, offsetting 80–90% token price declines.
• HBM production displaces commodity DRAM at roughly 1:3 or 1:4, extending memory shortages.
• Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron are positioned to benefit from durable memory demand and long-term agreements.
• Nvidia below $180 or Alphabet below $300 are his warning levels for AI capex breaking down.
• Robotis offers a humanoid and data factory catalyst but appears dependent on confirmation of its valuation premium.
• TES has a BSD-to-HBM qualification catalyst, while Hanmi Semiconductor is supported by strong earnings and HBM TC bonder leadership.