Chesley Morning Brief: Global Stock Valuation Check (June 22, 2026)

Summary

The Chesley Morning Brief reviews global markets across virtual assets, US equities, and Korean stocks. Bitcoin is seen as undervalued, with whale accumulation amid ongoing ETF outflows and seasonal weakness expected to fade by October. In US markets, AI infrastructure capex continues to power semiconductor and equipment names, keeping the sector buoyant despite narrow breadth. The Korean market is led by memory heavyweights Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, with KOSPI appearing undervalued relative to high ROE. Specific bottom-up picks include SNS Tech, Hyundai Rotem, and Hyundai Department Store, each supported by distinct catalysts.

• Bitcoin shows resilience; whale accumulation suggests accumulation phase, recovery expected around October.
• Hyperscaler capex sharply revised up, strengthening the case for AI semiconductor and equipment stocks including AMAT, LRCX, MU, INTC, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Caterpillar.
• KOSPI trades at 8.7x forward P/E with 29.7% ROE, implying undervaluation driven by semiconductor profits.
• SNS Tech lagged peers despite benefiting from Chinese memory DUV demand, seen as catch-up opportunity.
• Hyundai Rotem poised for major K2 tank export orders from Iraq and Peru, undervalued at ~19x PE.
• Hyundai Department Store benefits from foreign tourist boom, high margins, and cheap relative valuation.
• Market participants are concerned about narrow breadth, Fed policy uncertainty, and potential seasonal correction in August-September.
• Short-term bias favors KOSPI slightly down on Monday, then bounce before Micron earnings release.