What's Different from the Semiconductor Market We Experienced? | Kim Hong-beom, Head of Yuanta PSG Asset Management

Summary

Kim Hong-beom, head of Yuanta PSG Asset Management, argues the KOSPI has at least 20% upside from around 6,600 as earnings growth and multiple expansion combine. He expects the AI-driven semiconductor upcycle to run longer and stronger than past cycles, favoring SK hynix and Samsung Electronics, and sees earnings upgrades broadening to power equipment, shipbuilding, and defense. The main risk he flags is sticky inflation and higher funding costs, which could hurt debt-funded data-center projects and related stocks.

• Kim sees KOSPI at least 20% higher, with 8,250-8,800 possible and 10,000 discussed long term.
• He argues Korea is shifting toward shareholder returns via buybacks, cancellations, and governance reform.
• He believes the current semiconductor cycle combines earnings growth and multiple expansion.
• He says the AI/memory upcycle is stronger than 2016-17 and only eight months into a typical 1-1.5 year cycle.
• He explicitly likes and owns SK hynix and cites surging Samsung Electronics earnings estimates.
• He expects earnings upgrades to broaden to Korean power equipment, shipbuilding, and defense.
• He warns that inflation and interest rates could trigger sharp corrections in data-center-related stocks.
• He advises buying on dips rather than fearing record index levels.