Ideas
Bullish stocks now, cautious later
Deluard maintains a 'great reset' view of higher nominal growth, higher rates, higher productivity, higher inflation and larger deficits, and argues growth scares should be faded. He cites daily Treasury tax collections—up 5-10% generally, with personal-income collections up more than 10% and January initially 24% before settling around 12-13%—as evidence that the real economy is stronger than official surveys suggest. He expects tax refunds, possible tariff checks, Fed rate cuts and AI capex to create an inflationary acceleration. He is bullish on stocks for now and expects them to grind higher on higher volatility until summer, similar to late 1999/early 2000, although he also sees a stock-market bubble and worries about a later secular bear market.
Energy cheap; data centers lift demand
Energy was one of the most hated assets in late 2025, which he compared to Meta in 2022, Google in 2024 and Chinese stocks when consensus thought they were broken. It is now the best-performing S&P 500 sector but still one of the few cheap US equity assets. AI data-center construction is massive and energy-intensive; natural gas should act as a bridge power source before renewables and nuclear scale, and old-school energy benefits from the buildout and inflationary/geopolitical backdrop. This was his highest-conviction energy-complex call.
Overweight international equities versus US concentration
He is an international bull, not bearish on the US, and recommends allocating more to international assets because US investors are excessively concentrated in domestic equities—target-date and balanced portfolios often have roughly 80% equities, 80% of that in US stocks, and half of that in the Magnificent Seven. He sees diversification away from that concentration as a major portfolio need, reinforced by foreign pension funds potentially de-risking US assets, hedging the dollar and repatriating capital to Europe and Japan, which could create self-reinforcing currency, growth and asset-return gains outside the US.
Latin America under-owned, improving
As part of his international overweight, he says Latin America was dramatically under-owned over the prior three years and is starting to look better, making it a key diversification destination away from US equity concentration.
Europe equities look fantastic
He says Europe looks fantastic, supported by last year's cheap euro, foreign inflation and government stimulus, though some of those positives are less attractive today. He maintains an overweight as part of the broader international diversification and capital-repatriation theme.
Larger hard-asset allocation, prefer gold
Long term, he argues everything discussed supports a larger portfolio allocation to hard assets because global imbalances and an imperfect monetary system make gold, silver, platinum and copper useful transition assets and imperfect substitutes. He prefers gold within the group, notes there is no earnings or cash-flow anchor to value them, and thinks they can keep going higher even though he is somewhat worried by gold's chart.
Crypto belongs in portfolios long-term
He says cryptocurrency could be extremely interesting once the current volatility and full-year-cycle fears are worked through. He views crypto and precious metals as imperfect transition solutions until a more efficient global monetary settlement exists, and believes both belong in investors' portfolios, though he does not frame crypto as an immediate clean trade.
This Forward Guidance video, published February 11, 2026,
features vincentdeluard
discussing SPY, XLE, UNG, ACWX, ILF, VGK, GLD, SILVER, PPLT, COPPER, Cryptocurrency.
7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
vincentdeluard
· Tickers:
SPY,
XLE,
UNG,
ACWX,
ILF,
VGK,
GLD,
SILVER,
PPLT,
COPPER,
Cryptocurrency
