Ukraine Gains Leverage Ahead of Talks

Summary

Andrew Kramer, New York Times Kyiv Bureau Chief, discusses the upcoming US-backed Ukraine peace talks. He details Ukraine's battlefield momentum driven by drone strikes into Russia, the stalling of ground advances, and damage to Russian energy infrastructure including the closure of the Novorossiysk oil port. Shifting US political dynamics, with Trump sounding more positive on Ukraine and MAGA influencers visiting, are also reshaping the diplomatic backdrop.

• Peace talks stalled for months; next week's meeting could restart discussions with Donbas control as the central issue.
• Ukraine has gained battlefield momentum with daily drone strikes deep into Russia and a stalled frontline.
• Russian oil export capacity hit: Novorossiysk port closed, about a quarter of refining capacity destroyed, ships targeted in the Black Sea.
• Ukraine's technological advantage may last about six months before Russia catches up, creating a negotiation window.
• Geographic asymmetry gives Ukraine an advantage as drones penetrate ever-widening Russian territory.
• Trump's tone on Ukraine has become more positive, and MAGA influencers are visiting Ukraine, shifting US political dynamics.
• Both sides are engaged in long-range attritional warfare; the ground war is largely stalled, making it an air war.