Is the AI Semiconductor Boom a Mirage? Not Due to Increased Demand, But 'This Reason' / What Will Happen if Semiconductor Prices Fall | Dr. Lee Ju-wan

Summary

Dr. Lee Ju-wan argues that the current memory semiconductor boom is caused by artificial supply cuts rather than genuine AI demand. He warns that oversupply has begun and prices will collapse soon, leading to severe earnings decline for Samsung and SK Hynix. He also discusses the risk of Korean memory companies losing market share to Chinese and Micron. The host and guest explore implications for semiconductor equipment and materials companies.

• Dr. Lee states the memory price increase is 100% due to supply cuts, not demand.
• Spot prices for DRAM/NAND have already started declining, signaling imminent fixed-price drops.
• Korean memory firms combined DRAM market share fell from 77% to ~60% in about a year due to production cuts.
• Chinese semiconductor equipment investment accounts for over 40% of global, leading to future oversupply.
• The speaker believes memory prices will fall sharply and long-term contracts will become worthless.
• He advises caution on Korean memory stocks and notes materials companies may have flexibility but face substitution risks.