Ideas
Gold supported by geopolitical reallocation.
Gold is supported by global distrust of US assets after the seizure of Russian reserves and geopolitical risks, by portfolio reallocation, and by central-bank buying. Alfredo argues the metal complex would only reverse if Trump became friendlier with the world.
Silver supply-demand and industrial demand.
He prefers silver over gold because, besides the monetary/geopolitical hedge, supply is constrained since silver is mostly a by-product of lead/zinc mining and above-ground stock is low, while industrial demand from solar panels and AI-related energy infrastructure rises.
High carry makes long dollar lose.
With Brazilian real rates near 10% versus about 2% real in the US, carrying long dollar versus real is extremely expensive. Unless the dollar appreciates more than roughly 10% per year, long dollar loses; he says the dollar is made to be sold, though hard-currency reserves still make sense as insurance.
High real rates limit Brazil equities.
Brazilian equities have limited upside because real interest rates around 10% create a huge opportunity cost. He is out of the stock market and prefers fixed income, as high real rates pay well without risk in an unstable and uncertain scenario.
Vale expensive versus iron ore.
Vale looks expensive relative to iron ore. With iron ore around US$100, the stock is above its historical relative pricing, and he worries about exaggerated prices in blue chips after foreign ETF inflows.
Metals overextended after parabolic rally.
After a near-parabolic rally, with silver going from about 2.5 to 5.5 and gold also very stretched, the metals market became dysfunctional: longs get anxious and non-holders lack courage to enter, making sharp corrections likely and favoring selling strength.
Bitcoin narratives being challenged.
Bitcoin’s reserve-of-value, inflation-hedge, and alternative-currency theses are being challenged. It became dependent on ETFs, liquidity, and traditional-market validation, is more like a digital commodity, and unrealistic targets such as US$1 million in three years or US$200k are fading.
Mexico offers fiscal and silver leverage.
Mexico is attractive due to improving fiscal and current-account dynamics, relatively high tax capacity, exposure to silver, and its role in the global portfolio reallocation away from US assets. He is long Mexico, not only the currency.
Short euro on weak Europe.
Europe has weak growth outside Spain, and the euro strengthened partly on military/defense spending, which is an expense and future deficit rather than productive investment. He does not see moving into euro as safe and likes being short the euro.
Private credit spreads too tight.
Brazilian private-credit spreads are too tight and no longer compensate credit risk. S1 bank spreads are only about 5% of CDI above S3, LFT trades around 101, tax exemptions and the closing of exclusive funds distorted the curve, and many FIDCs lack sufficient analytical coverage; he avoids B- and sees correction risk.
Election makes Brazil binary; underweight.
Brazil is a binary scenario because of the election, with high volatility and risk of deterioration depending on the result. He prefers to be much more allocated outside Brazil and avoids carrying positions into August/September near the election.
This Market Makers video, published February 03, 2026,
features Alfredo Menezes, Sérgio Machado
discussing GLD, SILVER, USDBRL, BOVA11.SA, VALE3.SA, BTC, EWW, MXN, FXE, Crédito privado brasileiro, FIDC, EWZ.
11 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Alfredo Menezes,
Sérgio Machado
· Tickers:
GLD,
SILVER,
USDBRL,
BOVA11.SA,
VALE3.SA,
BTC,
EWW,
MXN,
FXE,
Crédito privado brasileiro,
FIDC,
EWZ
