Live from Proof of Talk in Paris - Day 1
Speakers
Matthew Seagull
— Head of Digital Assets Research, VANC
Summary
Gareth Jenson interviews Matthew Seagull from VANC, who advocates for Bitcoin miners, warns against MicroStrategy and altcoins, and is bullish on Bitcoin. Later segments cover Bit Tensor's ecosystem and Certic's security insights.
- Matthew Seagull pitches the Node ETF and highlights Bitcoin miners as undervalued.
- He advises avoiding MicroStrategy due to debt risks and value transfer from equity.
- Seagull expects Bitcoin to bottom around October and rally over the next year.
- He is bearish on altcoins, citing regulatory headwinds and lack of adoption.
- Allah Shabbana discusses Bit Tensor's subnet ecosystem and Crucible Labs.
- Jason Jung addresses rising crypto hacks, AI-enabled exploits, and the importance of real-time detection.
Trade Ideas
Bitcoin miners undervalued versus data REITs
Bitcoin miners have a valuation arbitrage compared to data center REITs on forward EBITDA, as they can pivot to high-performance computing and data center operations, potentially spinning off real estate. Their earnings are growing and valuations are cheap, making them undervalued relative to the opportunity.
Avoid MSTR due to debt risk
MicroStrategy's use of debt on a non-yielding asset transfers value from equity to fixed-income holders, creating downside risk for common stock. The premium is unjustified because the business does not generate durable cash flow to return to shareholders, and the risk/reward is unattractive due to high volatility and leverage.
Avoid altcoins due to regulation
Altcoins (crypto assets other than Bitcoin) are unattractive because the Trump administration's crypto policies remove enforcement against scams, putting decentralized tokens on an equal footing without offering any advantage. Combined with lack of disclosure and adoption evidence, the outlook is negative.
Bitcoin will be higher in a year
Bitcoin is likely to retest the 58K-60K level and bottom around October 2026, then rally higher over the next year. The four-year cycle and election uncertainty support this view, and he has high conviction that Bitcoin will be significantly higher in 12 months.
