Second-Half Dispersion Turning into Diffusion: The Next Bottleneck for Rotation | Hong Sun-ae, Mok Dae-kyun

Summary

Mok Dae-kyun, CEO of KCGI Asset Management, argues that the AI-led Korea rally has shifted from a pure tech cycle into a macro-sensitive rate and credit cycle. He sees the July low as confirmed and Korean equities as still revaluating, though the pace should slow. He prefers SK hynix over Samsung on shareholder returns, expects Nvidia's earnings to be strong but the stock to stay sideways, and favors a second-half rotation from concentrated memory leaders into long-cycle bottlenecks such as semiconductor equipment, power equipment, and data-center construction.

• The AI cycle is now linked to macro rates and credit, with the 30-year US Treasury yield as the key variable.
• The July low is viewed as confirmed and Korean equities are still in a revaluation trend.
• SK hynix is preferred over Samsung due clearer shareholder-return policy; Samsung remains undervalued but lacks buyback clarity.
• Nvidia's earnings are a key event, but even a consensus beat may not lift shares because expectations are high.
• Capital is rotating from concentrated Samsung/SK hynix memory exposure to next bottlenecks such as semiconductor equipment, power equipment, and data-center construction.
• The base case is an upward-sloping KOSPI with a slower, more distributed second-half advance.