Continuously Falling Shipbuilding Stocks… 2026 Earnings Are Record-Breaking, So Why Are They Dropping? Is This a Real Peak-Out? | Research Fellow Eom Kyung-a

Summary

Eom Kyung-a of ShinYoung Securities argues that the recent fall in Korean shipbuilding stocks is not justified by sector fundamentals. She sees 2026 order intake exceeding 2024, backs earnings visibility through 2028, and highlights LNG/gas carrier economics, floating data centers, Samsung Heavy's offshore re-rating potential, and HD Hyundai's engine internalization. She also says shipbuilding equipment makers need overseas expansion for volume growth, while FX is only a secondary one-off factor.

• Peak-out concerns are rejected; 2026 order intake is expected to beat 2024.
• Backlog locks in earnings improvement through 2028, with customers in stable financial condition.
• LNG/gas carriers are high-value orders, but a stronger order cycle may wait until 2027.
• All three major Korean shipbuilders are pursuing floating data center models; first contract is the key catalyst.
• Samsung Heavy's offshore exposure could help it narrow its valuation discount.
• HD Hyundai's in-house engine business and engine expansion are margin-positive, though expansion revenue is post-2028.
• Shipbuilding equipment makers face a fixed Korean order pool and need overseas customers for volume growth.
• FX is viewed as a secondary factor; one-off hedging gains may fade but margins should hold.