KOSPI Bull Market Is Not Over Yet! The Last Signal Sent by 'Securities Stocks'

Summary

Song Jae-kyung, CEO of Dimension Investment Advisory, discusses the Korean stock market outlook after a strong H1. He highlights a rotation into KOSDAQ and small-cap names, driven by domestic AI investment. Despite near-term AI demand risks such as Open AI's IPO delay and falling GPU rental costs, he believes the KOSPI bull market is not over. Securities stocks serve as a critical leading indicator for market peaks, and he advocates regular portfolio rebalancing.

• KOSPI was the top-performing global market in H1 2025, led by AI semiconductor stocks.
• Recent rotation from large-cap tech into KOSDAQ and small/mid-cap is gaining traction.
• GPU rental cost index from Silicon Data declined sharply, signaling potential cooling in AI compute demand.
• Open AI's IPO delay and heavy debt-funded capex reliance on Microsoft and Oracle raise concerns about future AI investment.
• Global central banks are shifting toward net rate hikes, tightening liquidity and increasing market sensitivity.
• Government-led massive AI investment and Samsung/SK Hynix domestic capex are expected to benefit Korean small/mid-cap suppliers.
• Korean securities stocks historically peak ahead of market tops; their recovery is key to sustaining the current rally.
• Investors should rebalance regularly, taking profits from overextended positions to balance returns and risk.