A 9,000 S&P year-end target by 2027 is achievable under the right circumstances: Julian Emanuel

Summary

Julian Emanuel discusses a S&P 500 target range of 7750 to 9000 by 2027, warns that 10-year yields above 4.8% could stall equities, and highlights near-term macro headwinds from oil and midterm seasonality.

• S&P 500 base case target 7750 by end of 2027, with a stretch scenario of 9000 under extreme capital markets activity and FOMO
• 10-year Treasury yield approaching 4.8% could create competition for corporate debt and historically has stalled equity rallies
• AI buildout remains strong, supported by creative financing and hyperscaler earnings, though dependent on capital markets
• Oil price increases feeding into higher yields could become a macro headwind for stocks approaching September
• Midterm election years have historically seen elevated fall volatility