Bessent Gets Boost from Oil, Bond Signal: 3-Minutes MLIV
Speakers
Summary
Bloomberg's Paul discusses how falling oil prices and stabilizing bond-market signals support long-dated Treasuries, while flagging the structural US deficit debate. He also previews Nvidia's earnings as a key AI-investment check, focusing on revenue, guidance, and gross margin.
- Falling oil prices are seen as a signal of slower inflation and a support for the long end of the yield curve.
- Swap spreads, options-market stabilization, and reported Citadel positioning point to near-term relief in long bonds.
- The speaker tempers the bond outlook by expecting higher yields over time in a higher-rate economy.
- The structural US deficit is flagged, with Treasury Secretary Bessent wanting to outgrow the debt burden rather than impose austerity.
- Nvidia earnings are previewed with attention to current-quarter revenue around $92 billion and next-quarter guidance above $100 billion.
- The expected Nvidia gross margin around 75% and cost management are key, given rising memory-chip costs.
Ideas
Long bonds seeing near-term relief signs.
Declining oil prices signal slightly slower inflation and support the long end of the Treasury curve; swap spreads show Treasuries outperforming interest-rate swaps, options markets are stabilizing, and Citadel reportedly flipped more bullish on long bonds, pointing to near-term relief for long-dated bonds. Longer term, he expects higher yields in a higher-rate economy.
Watch Nvidia revenue and margin beat.
Nvidia earnings are a key AI-investment check: watch current-quarter revenue around $92 billion, next-quarter guidance above $100 billion, and the 75% expected gross margin. A revenue or margin beat, cost control, and pricing actions matter, particularly with memory-chip costs rising.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published August 26, 2026, features Paul discussing US Long-dated Treasuries, NVDA. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Paul · Tickers: US Long-dated Treasuries, NVDA