Name: Driverless Cars Take the Fast Lane
Uploaded: 2026-01-09T00:38:00+00:00
Duration: 612 s

Speakers

Brian Nowak — US Internet Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Andrew Procopio — Head of North America Auto and Shared Mobility Research

Summary

Morgan Stanley analysts Brian Nowak and Andrew Percoco discuss why 2026 could be an inflection point for autonomous vehicles. They expect U.S. AV availability to scale, track Tesla's cost advantage and safety progress versus Waymo, and assess implications for ride share. The key debate is how much AVs expand ride share TAM versus pressure Uber and Lyft if they lack partnerships.

2026 is framed as a potential game-changing year for autonomous vehicle adoption.
AV availability is modeled to rise from about 15% to over 30% of the U.S. urban population by year-end 2026.
Tesla is seen as having a substantial cost advantage, but must prove safety comparable to Waymo.
Waymo is described as the current safety leader with far more cumulative autonomous miles.
New snow-city launches are expected to test AV reliability in harder geographies.
Autonomous miles are modeled to grow rapidly but remain under 1% of total U.S. miles through 2032.
Uber and Lyft could benefit from a larger ride share TAM but face share risk without broader AV partnerships.
Tesla's decision not to partner with ride share platforms is a key competitive variable to watch.

Ideas

Brian Nowak US Internet Analyst, Morgan Stanley 0:09

2026 AV adoption inflection; long-term TAM huge.

2026 is likely a game-changing inflection point for autonomous vehicles: availability in the U.S. should rise from about 15% of the urban population at the end of 2025 to over 30% by year-end 2026, driven by regulatory progress, fleets proving safety above human-driving benchmarks, new city rollouts, and falling vehicle costs; Morgan Stanley models autonomous miles driven compounding at roughly 100% annually through 2032 while still under 1% of total U.S. miles, leaving a massive long-term TAM.

Andrew Procopio Head of North America Auto and Shared Mobility Research 4:01

Tesla cost advantage; safety validation catalyst.

Tesla has a clear cost advantage in robotaxis, with an approximately $35,000 vehicle and camera-only, vertically integrated sensor suite giving about a 40% cost advantage versus Waymo. The key remaining hurdle is safety: Tesla’s Austin data shows a crash about every 50,000 miles versus Waymo’s roughly 400,000, but Tesla has far fewer miles. If Tesla’s safety data improves with scale as Waymo’s did, it validates the camera-only approach and Tesla can expand quickly because it is not limited by scale or manufacturing capacity.

Brian Nowak US Internet Analyst, Morgan Stanley 6:05

Uber/Lyft need AV partnerships to keep share.

The ride share industry is a key AV bank shot: autonomous trips are modeled as potentially 20-30% of the ride share industry and must prove incremental rather than cannibalistic. Uber and Lyft currently represent 100% of ride share, but Morgan Stanley models them at only 30% of the autonomous driving market under current partnerships because they are not partnered with every AV player in every market, including Tesla, which is going alone. It is important to monitor whether Uber and Lyft add more AV partnerships to participate in the long-term AV opportunity.

This Morgan Stanley video, published January 09, 2026, features Brian Nowak, Andrew Procopio discussing Autonomous vehicles, DRIV, TSLA, UBER, LYFT. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Brian Nowak, Andrew Procopio · Tickers: Autonomous vehicles, DRIV, TSLA, UBER, LYFT

Driverless Cars Take the Fast Lane

Summary

Ideas

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