Name: Peachtree CEO Greg Friedman talks outlook for Commercial Real Estate in 2026
Uploaded: 2026-01-14T23:08:03+00:00
Duration: 318 s

Speakers

Greg Friedman — CEO, Peachtree Group

Summary

Greg Friedman, CEO of Peachtree Group, joins Fast Money to discuss the 2026 commercial real estate outlook. He expects a slow recovery into 2029, with roughly $1 trillion of CRE loans maturing in 2026 at much higher rates and banks finally being forced to resolve broken balance sheets. He sees the 10-year Treasury staying above 4%, Class A office stabilizing on AI-driven demand, and Class B/C office remaining permanently challenged. Peachtree is buying bank CRE loans at 10-20% discounts to face.

CRE faces about $1 trillion of loans maturing in 2026 at rates 50% to 100% higher than origination.
Greg expects a grind to 2029 rather than a quick commercial real estate recovery.
The 10-year Treasury yield is expected to stay above 4%, pressuring CRE values.
Class A office is leasing up and stabilizing, helped by AI-related demand.
Class B and C office buildings remain challenged and may never recover.
Peachtree is buying bank and lender CRE loans at 10% to 20% discounts to face.
Peachtree bought $600 million of loans in 2025, the most since 2021.

Ideas

Greg Friedman CEO, Peachtree Group 0:33

CRE faces slow 2029 recovery, trading inflection

Greg says 2026 is an inflection point for commercial real estate, but not a quick recovery—he expects the market to grind to 2029. Roughly $1 trillion of CRE loans mature in 2026 at rates 50% to 100% higher than at origination, and banks have extended-and-pretended for three years. The core issue is broken balance sheets rather than asset-level fundamentals, so assets should finally trade and recalibrate to a higher-for-longer rate environment.

Greg Friedman CEO, Peachtree Group 2:10

10-year yield stays above 4%

Greg says the 10-year Treasury is the risk-free rate and is roughly double its 2010-2022 level. Short-term Fed rate cuts have not brought it down, and he expects it to remain elevated and stay above 4% over the next several years. That keeps pressure on commercial real estate values because cap rates have not fully recalibrated to a higher-for-longer 10-year yield.

Greg Friedman CEO, Peachtree Group 3:16

Class A office stabilizing on AI demand

Greg sees Class A office across the U.S. starting to lease up, with more demand for that space driven by the AI trade. He says Class A office is stabilizing and these assets should do well long term.

Greg Friedman CEO, Peachtree Group 3:32

Class B/C office likely never recovers

Greg says Class B and C office buildings remain challenged and many will likely never recover because they lack the right locations and amenity sets to be leased back up. He frames office as a clear bifurcation, with winners and losers.

Greg Friedman CEO, Peachtree Group 4:32

Buy discounted bank CRE loans

Greg says Peachtree is actively buying loans from banks and other lenders at an average 10% to 20% discount off face. It bought $600 million of loans in 2025, the most since 2021, within $3 billion of loan originations and new debt investments, with 20% of that being loan purchases. Lenders are selling paper at discounts as balance-sheet stress forces action, creating a buying opportunity similar to the COVID-era hotel loan dislocations.

This CNBC video, published January 14, 2026, features Greg Friedman discussing XLRE, 10-Year Treasury Yield, Class A office, Class B/C office, Commercial real estate loans. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Greg Friedman · Tickers: XLRE, 10-Year Treasury Yield, Class A office, Class B/C office, Commercial real estate loans

Peachtree CEO Greg Friedman talks outlook for Commercial Real Estate in 2026

Summary

Ideas

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