Stocks That Plunged on the AI Pace Adjustment Theory, We Checked the Fundamentals | Chesley Investment Advisory Vice President Choi Il-ho

Summary

Choi Il-ho, Vice President at Chesley Investment Advisory, reviews the sharp selloff in AI infrastructure and semiconductor stocks after Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's AI pace-adjustment comments. He argues the selloff is sentiment-driven and that underlying AI infrastructure demand and memory fundamentals remain solid, citing Citi's long-term memory outlook and supply shortages. He also covers fund manager survey positioning, energy sector leadership, and key upcoming catalysts such as FOMC and the AI Infrastructure Summit.

• AI pace-adjustment comments triggered a 5%+ drop in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and 5-10% pullbacks in many semiconductor stocks.
• The speaker views the selloff as sentiment-driven, with fundamentals and AI infrastructure demand still solid.
• Citi's long-term memory outlook sees continual learning driving HBM, server DRAM, and eSSD demand, with shortages and price increases into 2027-2028.
• Citi forecasts a 2027 HBM share shift: Samsung rising to 42% and SK hynix falling to 35%.
• Fund manager survey shows cash at 3.9%, semiconductor longs crowded at 53%, and rotation toward old economy sectors.
• Energy is the top-performing sector year-to-date at +44.5%, driven by WTI above $100 and the US-Iran war.
• Upcoming catalysts include FOMC, Q3 earnings preview, and the AI Infrastructure Summit 2026.
• The speaker advises caution in choppy oversold-stock trading until a clear direction emerges.