What New Tariffs Mean for Investors

Summary

Ayana Salvador argues that new tariff announcements are a continuation of existing policy, not a disruptive escalation. She expects the administration to maintain the current tariff regime without causing a major inflation or growth shock, supported by carve-outs and sensitivity to downstream costs. The broader macro outlook is benign, with trend-like growth, slowing consumer spending, AI-led capex, and constructive equity markets.

• US announced new Section 301 tariffs and USMCA negotiations, but the speaker views these as a continuation of existing policy.
• The administration is moving toward a more durable version of the current tariff regime, not a materially more restrictive one.
• Structural constraints limit downside risk from potential USMCA withdrawal.
• Recent pattern shows more carve-outs and exemptions, indicating sensitivity to downstream costs and political affordability.
• Macro outlook remains benign: trend-like growth, slowing but not collapsing consumer spending, AI-led capex offsetting headwinds.
• Equity strategists see strong earnings supported by operating leverage, AI adoption, and broadening earnings growth.