Name: Open Interest 2/17/2026
Uploaded: 2026-02-17T18:45:30+00:00
Duration: 5227 s

Speakers

Dani Burger — Anchor, Bloomberg Television

Ed Ludlow — Co-Host, Bloomberg Technology

Crystal Tse — Deals Reporter, Bloomberg

Catherine Garrity — Reporter, Bloomberg

Mandeep Singh — Senior Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence

Brian Levitt — Global Market Strategist, Invesco

Michelle Davis — Reporter, Bloomberg

Emily Cohn — Reporter, Bloomberg

Sitara Sundar — Global Investment Specialist, J.P. Morgan Private Bank

David Manlowe — CEO, Benefit Street Partners

Vania — Global Brand President, Lancôme

Dave Dase — Global Co-Head of Investment Banking, Goldman Sachs

Tyler Kendall — Multimedia Editor, Bloomberg

Summary

M&A Revival & Bidding Wars: The 2026 landscape is defined by aggressive deal-making. Warner Bros. Discovery is re-engaging with Paramount (sparking a bidding war with Netflix), while activist investors are swarming targets like Norwegian Cruise Line, TripAdvisor, and Pfizer to force sales or breakups.
AI Rotation & "Physical" Reality: A clear rotation is underway from pure AI hype to "physical world" assets. Investors are moving capital into industrials, financials, and mid-caps (RSP hitting highs) while scrutinizing software valuations.
Consumer Bifurcation: The consumer is trading down. Premium branded staples (General Mills) are crashing as buyers shift to private label, benefiting discounters like Walmart.
Defense AI Divergence: A split is emerging in Military AI. Anthropic is hesitating on "guardrails" for weapons/surveillance, creating a massive opening for unconstrained defense contractors like Palantir to capture government spend.

Trade Ideas

Ed Ludlow Co-Host, Bloomberg Technology 0:23

Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) has reopened negotiations with Paramount (PARA). Netflix (NFLX) granted a 7-day waiver for these talks. A banker signaled PARA would accept a minimum of $31/share. This signals a bidding war. PARA is the clear target with a floor price established. WBD risks over-leveraging to win the deal (negative for WBD equity/credit). NFLX is in the mix but has a disciplined balance sheet; if they walk, they might collect a breakup fee, but if they bid, they face regulatory scrutiny. Long PARA (Target), Avoid WBD (Acquirer Risk/Leverage concerns). Regulatory antitrust blocks (DOJ/FTC) could kill any deal; WBD might walk away if price gets too high.

Crystal Tse Deals Reporter, Bloomberg 0:34

Activist activity is surging. Elliott has a >10% stake in Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH). Starboard is pushing TripAdvisor (TRIP) for a sale. Jana Partners is in Pfizer (PFE). Danaher (DHR) is acquiring Masimo (MASI). Activists (Elliott, Starboard) are aggressively pushing for immediate value unlocking via sales, splits, or operational overhauls. This historically creates a floor for the stock price and drives short-term upside as the market prices in M&A premiums. Long the activist targets (NCLH, TRIP, MASI). Deal talks fail; activists exit without forcing change.

Mandeep Singh Senior Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence 13:51

Anthropic is hitting snags in Pentagon contract talks due to "guardrails" against mass surveillance and autonomous weapons. The Pentagon insists on using AI as long as it follows the law. The military prioritizes capability and speed over self-imposed ethical guardrails. If Anthropic refuses to engage on lethal/surveillance AI, the Pentagon will funnel that capital to contractors who *will* do the work, specifically Palantir (PLTR), which already specializes in this data integration. Long PLTR (as the beneficiary of competitors' ethical hesitation). Government budget cuts or PR backlash against military AI.

Brian Levitt Global Market Strategist, Invesco 29:55

Levitt notes a rotation from "virtual themes" (AI concentration) to the "physical world." The S&P 500 Equal Weight (RSP) is near all-time highs, while tech has seen 3 weeks of losses. The market is broadening out. As investors take profits in Mag-7/AI, capital flows into undervalued cyclical sectors (Financials, Industrials, Energy) and mid-caps that benefit from economic resilience and re-industrialization. Long RSP and Cyclical Sectors. A recession would hit cyclicals harder than cash-rich tech monopolies.

Emily Cohn Reporter, Bloomberg 42:10

Consumers are trading down from premium brands to cheaper options. Cohn explicitly mentions waiting for Walmart (WMT) earnings to confirm this trend. One company's loss (General Mills) is another's gain. As consumers abandon brands for value/private label, Walmart captures that traffic and volume. WMT benefits from the "trade-down" effect. Long WMT. Consumer spending stops entirely rather than just shifting down.

Sitara Sundar Global Investment Specialist, J.P. Morgan Private Bank

The market is shifting from "SaaS" to "Service as Software." Seat-based pricing models are at risk as AI agents reduce headcount. Software companies relying on "per-seat" pricing will suffer as companies hire fewer people due to AI efficiency. The winners will be "usage-based" models and infrastructure layers (Hyperscalers/Utilities) that power the AI itself. Avoid legacy seat-based SaaS; Long usage-based/infrastructure software. AI adoption slows, preserving the legacy seat-based model longer than expected.

Emily Cohn Reporter, Bloomberg

General Mills (GIS) lowered its sales outlook and stock is down 7%. Consumers are trading down to private label options in cereal, snacks, and pet food. Inflation fatigue has hit a breaking point. Brand loyalty is eroding as consumers switch to cheaper alternatives. Companies like GIS that rely on pricing power are losing volume to generics. Short GIS (and similar branded staples). GIS successfully lowers prices to regain volume, compressing margins but saving market share.

Open Interest 2/17/2026

Summary

Trade Ideas

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