Semiconductor Stock Rebound Scenario You Must See Before Earnings Release at the End of July

Summary

Kim Jang-yeol, Head of Unistory Asset Management Research Center, analyzes how China's open-weight Kimi K3 AI model could boost memory chip demand, benefiting Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. He outlines a KOSPI rebound scenario to 7,500-7,700 if upcoming big tech earnings confirm strong AI investment and long-term agreement pricing fears are resolved. He also cautions about rising US yields and dollar weakness as macro risks, but views Korea's AI infrastructure as relatively insulated.

• Open-weight AI models like Kimi K3 drive enterprise adoption and increase memory demand (HBM, server DRAM, SSD), a positive for Samsung and SK Hynix.
• Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix trade at 5-7x forward P/E and are poised to benefit from memory capex and potential LTA clarification.
• Key upside catalyst: big tech (Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft) capex guidance and RPO growth in late July.
• KOSPI index could rally to 7,500-7,700 if memory stocks rebound and macro fears subside.
• Growing US fiscal deficits and potential for rising long-term rates and weaker dollar pose macro headwinds.
• Korea may be relatively resilient due to AI memory and equipment exposure, but a US downturn would still impact.
• Technical support at 6,448 on KOSPI; a fast recovery would be constructive, but current environment is dominated by short-term hedge fund trading.