Brad Gerstner: No AI Bubble, Semis Eat the Nasdaq & AI's Take Off Problem

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  September 17, 2026 at 03:20  |  18:10  |  All-In Podcast
Speakers
Brad Gerstner — CEO, Altimeter Capital

Summary

Brad Gerstner argues the AI trade is still supported by an earnings-driven market, massive hyperscaler capex, and a semiconductor supercycle, with Nvidia and semis especially attractive. He sees the market as not in a bubble, but flags AI lab revenue, power constraints, regulation, and rising rates as key risks. He remains medium positioned and flexible, watching monthly AI lab revenues and oil prices for signs of further upside.

  • Brad Gerstner presents a market and AI capex update.
  • He says the market is earnings-driven, not multiple-driven, and not a 2000-style bubble.
  • Semiconductors are 70% of Nasdaq returns and benefit from hyperscaler capex.
  • Nvidia trades at 14x next year's fully taxed GAAP earnings.
  • AI revenue growth and token demand are strong, but top labs need more revenue to keep the trade intact.
  • Power, regulation, rates, and oil are key risks to the outlook.
  • He remains medium positioned and would add risk if AI revenues rise and oil retreats.
Ideas
Brad Gerstner CEO, Altimeter Capital 3:01
Nvidia is cheap, not a bubble.
Nvidia's revenue has doubled, yet it trades at only 14x next year's fully taxed GAAP earnings, well below average multiples, and is not in a 2000-style bubble. As the key AI infrastructure supplier, it benefits from the tight compute market and massive capex.
NVDA HIGH
Brad Gerstner CEO, Altimeter Capital 3:13
Earnings-driven market, multiples below average.
The market's rise is earnings-driven, not multiple expansion: earnings are up 26% while Nasdaq and S&P multiples have contracted and trade below average. AI can also drive productivity and margin expansion, as companies grow revenue without adding headcount. However, the path depends on AI lab revenues, rates, oil, and regulation, so position size is medium and flexible.
QQQ SPY HIGH
Brad Gerstner CEO, Altimeter Capital 4:11
AI supercycle favors semiconductor makers.
The AI capex supercycle is the largest technology buildout in history, with hyperscaler capex running almost dollar-for-dollar with semiconductor free cash flow. Semiconductors are driving 70% of Nasdaq returns, and the makers of AI tokens/infrastructure are capturing the profits because infrastructure is tight. Demand is not the issue: token growth, enterprise AI spend, and inference growth are exploding, and the TAM is the largest ever. This supports semiconductors.
SMH HIGH
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This All-In Podcast video, published September 17, 2026, features Brad Gerstner discussing NVDA, QQQ, SPY, SMH. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Brad Gerstner  · Tickers: NVDA, QQQ, SPY, SMH