Russia is becoming a second-rate state under Putin, Says Eurasia Group's Ian Bremmer

Summary

Ian Bremmer of Eurasia Group argues the world is in a geopolitical bust cycle because US power no longer aligns with global institutions, with the US stepping back from historic leadership. He says countries are de-risking economically rather than fully decoupling, while security remains US-dominated. Bremmer sees Russia weakened by the Ukraine war and becoming a second-rate state, while China is empowered by US unreliability and is expanding its influence in global institutions. He outlines post-Trump scenarios of either normalization from a damaged base or continued deterioration.

• Bremmer frames geopolitics as a bust cycle, not a slide into world war.
• The US remains most powerful but is retreating from collective security, free trade, and democracy promotion.
• The global economy is multipolar while security remains US-dominated, limiting allies' options.
• Countries are hedging by diversifying away from US trade and capital rather than fully decoupling.
• Europe and India are cited as examples of allies diversifying while still relying on the US security umbrella.
• Russia is weakened by the Ukraine war and becoming a second-rate state dependent on China.
• China is taking advantage of US unreliability and stepping up influence in global institutions.
• Bremmer says the post-Trump trajectory depends on whether the next US leader is predictable and reliable.