Clarity Act July 15 is the 'Last Watershed' No Bitcoin Upside Momentum if It Fails

Summary

Choi Yun-young, Team Leader at Hanwha Investment & Securities, and host Kim Dong-hwan discuss the state of crypto regulation and tokenization. They cover MiCA's full effect in Europe, Binance's license withdrawal and Coinbase's competitive advantage from new UK licenses. The talk shifts to RWA market growth, Ondo Finance's risky tokenized-stock collateral product, and the outlook for Bitcoin. They conclude that near-term Bitcoin momentum hinges on the US Clarity Act and the watershed July 15 congressional hearings, with ETF outflows adding caution.

• MiCA fully in force as of July 1, exchanges seek licenses; Binance withdrew its application, while Coinbase gained a UK license to serve retail crypto.
• Licensing is becoming a competitive moat; Coinbase is well-positioned to expand in Europe, benefiting from MiCA's regulatory framework.
• RWA tokenization market grew 5.8x over the past year, led by Space X tokenized shares on platforms like Backpack and Securitize.
• Ondo Finance launched tokenized stock as collateral for perpetual futures, increasing utility but introducing correlation risk for users.
• U.S. Clarity Act progress has stalled; the bill is unlikely to pass before the midterms, removing a key positive catalyst for Bitcoin.
• Bitcoin's short-term upside depends on the July 15 House hearing; without a positive surprise, momentum will likely remain muted.
• Bitcoin ETF and global ETP outflows throughout June added downward pressure, reinforcing a cautious near-term view.