Name: February 2026 Random Ramblings
Uploaded: 2026-02-17T20:15:38+00:00
Duration: 1670 s

Speakers

Andrew Walker — Host, Yet Another Value Blog

Summary

Andrew Walker's February 2026 random ramblings focus on the AI-driven panic spreading through SaaS, insurance, office, trucking, and other sectors. He contrasts today's selloff with prior bank and biotech panics, noting that software and other intangible-asset businesses lack the hard-asset valuation floors that made those earlier opportunities easier to underwrite. He discusses hard assets and cement as potential AI-proof areas, warns that AI could disrupt coal and natural gas via better batteries, and reflects on updating priors and balancing arrogance with humility in investing.

AI fears are spreading beyond SaaS to office, insurance, brokers, and LTL trucking.
SaaS selloff is a panic, but lack of tangible assets makes it hard to buy confidently.
Prior bank and biotech panics offered tangible valuation floors; SaaS does not.
Hard assets and cyclicals are catching a bid as AI-proof flight-to-safety trades.
Cement benefits from durable local demand and AI data-center construction.
AI battery breakthroughs could be bearish for coal and natural gas.
Andrew emphasizes updating priors and balancing arrogance with humility.
He invites listener feedback and discussion.

Ideas

Andrew Walker Host, Yet Another Value Blog 4:06

AI panic in SaaS hard to buy

The SaaS sector is in a broad AI-driven panic, with disparate names selling off together, which historically signals dislocation and opportunity. However, unlike banks or biotech, SaaS businesses lack tangible assets and their cash flows can evaporate quickly if AI enables competitors to replicate or replace their software at exponentially lower cost. The speaker wants to buy into panics but finds this one especially dangerous because it is hard to assess which SaaS models are truly AI-proof; sector specialists with expert calls and CIO surveys may have an edge.

Andrew Walker Host, Yet Another Value Blog 10:32

AI threatens insurers beyond basic products

Specialty insurers and life insurers sold off after Anthropic rolled out a basic insurance product. The speaker thinks dismissing the selloff as silly is wrong because AI is starting with standardized life insurance, which is simple and uniform across markets, and if it can do that now, in a few years it may handle specialized insurance and more complex underwriting. That makes the sector vulnerable to AI disruption, so the selloff is not necessarily an overreaction.

Andrew Walker Host, Yet Another Value Blog 16:00

Hard assets catch AI-safe bid

Hard assets and more cyclical businesses have started catching a bid as a flight-to-safety trade because they are seen as AI-proof: a coal mine still produces coal, and steel, cement, and power demand may benefit from AI data centers. The speaker thinks this is probably right to some extent, but warns investors should be careful because AI could also disrupt some hard-asset businesses.

Andrew Walker Host, Yet Another Value Blog 16:46

Cement has durable local AI tailwinds

Cement demand is durable and local: it is used in roads, buildings, and AI data centers, and it is heavy and difficult to ship long distances, so it cannot easily be disrupted by AI or globalization. The speaker has written about cement, sees AI data center construction as a tailwind, and expects cement to be used 100 years from now whether AI is here or not.

Andrew Walker Host, Yet Another Value Blog 17:27

Office AI emptiness fear overblown

Office stocks sold off on fears that AI will let companies fire everyone and leave office buildings empty forever. The speaker thinks that fear is overblown, implying the AI-driven office selloff is likely an overreaction.

Andrew Walker Host, Yet Another Value Blog 17:49

AI battery breakthrough could sink coal/gas

AI has increased power demand, which has been positive for coal and natural gas so far, but the speaker warns that if AI cracks efficient battery storage, solar and wind combined with cheap batteries could displace thermal generation. That would be really bearish for coal and natural gas, so the setup is worth monitoring as an AI-driven risk.

February 2026 Random Ramblings

Summary

Ideas

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