Business Leaders Talk Geopolitical Risk at Milken | Balance of Power: Early Edition 5/04/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  May 04, 2026 at 19:32  |  1:32:49  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Bill Ackman — CEO, Pershing Square Capital (Quoted via X/Twitter)
Mike Wirth — CEO of Chevron
John Denton — Editor, The Block
Ian Bremmer — President and Founder, Eurasia Group

Summary

The episode covers geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure, discussing oil and fertilizer supply shocks. Business leaders at the Milken Conference, including Ian Bremmer, Bill Ackman, and Chevron CEO Mike Wirth, provide analysis. Ackman pitches a turnaround for Universal Music Group, and Wirth highlights Chevron's relative strength. The show also touches on housing affordability and stablecoin regulation.

  • Geopolitical tensions with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz closure dominate the conference.
  • Oil prices rise as supply tightens; Brent crude above $114.
  • John Denton warns of a looming fertilizer crisis and food price surge.
  • Bill Ackman outlines a plan to revalue Universal Music Group via US listing and restructuring.
  • Chevron CEO Mike Wirth notes the US cannot fully replace Hormuz oil supply, benefiting Chevron's growing production.
  • Housing affordability and regulatory burdens are discussed with HUD Secretary Scott Turner.
  • Senator Angela Alsobrooks talks about stablecoin regulation and wealth creation.
  • Kevin Hassett promotes the Trump IRA program to expand retirement savings.
Trade Ideas
Bill Ackman CEO, Pershing Square Capital (Quoted via X/Twitter) 33:07
UMG undervalued due to poor execution and listing.
Universal Music Group (UMG) is undervalued because it operates like a private company, is listed in Amsterdam instead of the US, has unmonetized assets like its Spotify stake, and has lost investor confidence. Proposed changes including a US listing, balance sheet recast, 17% share cancellation, and a new board led by Mike Ovitz will unlock significant value.
Universal Music Group HIGH
John Denton Editor, The Block 43:55
Fertilizer supply shock, prices to surge.
The Strait of Hormuz closure is not only about oil and gas but also about fertilizer. The resulting supply shock and price spike will create a cataclysmic problem for food production, especially in Africa and Latin America, leading to significantly higher fertilizer prices and a food crisis within months.
Fertilizer (commodity) MED
Mike Wirth CEO of Chevron 87:13
Chevron better positioned amid oil supply tightness.
Chevron is relatively less exposed to Middle East disruptions than peers, is growing production 7-10% annually, and the tightening global supply situation (Strait of Hormuz closure, inventory drawdowns) will benefit the company as prices rise. The US cannot fully offset the lost supply, so Chevron's output is sorely needed.
CVX HIGH
Mike Wirth CEO of Chevron 89:16
Oil supply tightening, prices set to rise.
Global oil supply is tightening because the Strait of Hormuz closure is cutting off ~20% of world energy flows, inventories are being drawn down, and the US cannot fully compensate. This creates upward price pressure and risk of supply outages in Europe and Asia, driving crude prices higher.
BNO WTI HIGH
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published May 04, 2026, features Bill Ackman, John Denton, Mike Wirth discussing Universal Music Group, Fertilizer (commodity), CVX, BNO, WTI. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Bill Ackman, John Denton, Mike Wirth  · Tickers: Universal Music Group, Fertilizer (commodity), CVX, BNO, WTI