Why Is It Shaking? Semiconductor Supply and Demand and Changes in Market Structure | Kim Jang-yeol, Head of Research Center, Unistory Asset Management

Summary

Kim Jang-yeol breaks down the semiconductor supply-demand landscape after ASML's strong earnings and the ongoing memory cycle. He explains why Korean memory stocks (Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix) are under pressure from big-tech hegemonic pricing dynamics, ADR discount, and local market structure, and argues that US-listed Micron Technology is a cleaner, more comfortable way to play the memory upswing. The discussion also covers TSMC's stable outlook, CXMT's emerging competition, and the structural challenges facing Korean equities.

• ASML beats on earnings, guides capacity up 30% for EUV/DUV, and raises full-year revenue/margin guidance on strong memory capex.
• Memory capex expansion by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron is the primary demand driver for semiconductor equipment.
• US big-tech firms are exerting hegemonic pressure on memory prices to keep their component costs in check, creating headwinds for Korean memory stocks.
• SK Hynix ADR and Micron now trade at similar forward PEs (~6.2x), shifting the global investors' benchmark away from Korean local shares.
• Korean local memory stocks (Samsung, SK Hynix) are cheap at 4-5x forward earnings but face structural risks: ADR discount, leveraged ETF volatility, and illiquidity.
• For investors with US market access, Micron is presented as a less volatile, structurally cleaner alternative to Korean memory names.
• CXMT's IPO and Apple's potential use of Alibaba AI in iPhone for China introduce competitive uncertainty, though overall memory demand remains positive.
• TSMC's Q2 revenue already tops high-end guidance and capex is expected up, but the speaker sees no major short-term catalyst for the stock.