The fear that "semiconductors are over," why are foreigners shaking things up now? | Moon Hong-cheol, DB Securities Asset Strategy Team Leader

Summary

Moon Hong-cheol, DB Securities Asset Strategy Team Leader, argues that the recent plunge in Korean semiconductors is a deliberate foreign 'shaking' to fleece retail, not the end of the cycle, and that a strong rebound will follow as foreign investors mechanically re-enter. He lays out a bull case for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix (targeting 300,000 KRW) bolstered by falling Q4 rates. He also warns that the US-Japan joint forex intervention to support the yen is historically significant and could unwind the massive yen carry trade, threatening US credit and equity markets, while recommending short-term Treasuries as a defensive hedge.

• Foreign institutional selling in Korean semiconductors was rule-driven, not fundamental, and will reverse sharply.
• Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are buys; SK Hynix will reclaim 300,000 KRW as foreign re-entry and Q4 rate relief lift tech.
• US Q4 rates should fall because core inflation is not spreading and employment data is unreliable.
• The US-Japan coordinated yen-buying intervention is rare and signals a potential long-term trend reversal for the yen.
• Yen carry trade exposure is at historic scale (up to $2 trillion); a sharp yen appreciation could trigger cascading repatriation.
• US credit bonds and equities are especially vulnerable if Japanese investors unwind positions.
• In a carry-unwind crisis, US short-term Treasuries would be the safest asset; gold and crypto are less reliable.
• The carry unwind is not imminent without an external trigger, but the risk profile warrants close monitoring.