지금이 고점? 닷컴버블과 결정적 차이 '한 가지’ㅣ김한진 박사 삼프로TV 이코노미스트 [여의도 인사이트]

Summary

Dr. Kim Han-jin argues the current semiconductor-driven rally is not a bubble due to strong earnings, but warns that Korean semiconductor stocks (Samsung, SK Hynix) may peak this year as earnings growth decelerates. He advises reducing exposure and increasing cash, while noting that any pullback could be a buying opportunity as downside is limited. The overall market is driven by earnings rather than macro fears, though rate risk and oil disruption remain important to watch.

• The market rally is supported by earnings, unlike the dot-com bubble.
• Korean semiconductor stocks (Samsung, SK Hynix) are likely to top in 2025 and may stagnate for 2–3 years.
• Earnings growth for these stocks is decelerating from 6x to 1.5x, reducing upside.
• A pullback in semiconductor stocks could be an attractive entry point due to non-bubble valuations.
• The US economy is resilient for now, with recession risk only if Hormuz oil disruption persists.
• Rate risk is the key headwind, but the Fed is unlikely to hike given political factors.
• Investors should focus on company earnings and technical indicators rather than macro noise.
• Other Korean stocks are fundamentally sound but may not benefit from rotation yet.