베센트도 못 막는 미국 국채 금리…비트코인에 기회 될까 | 서동주, 김동환, 이윤수 에릭의 거장연구소 대표 [크립토 PLUS]

Summary

Lee Yoon-soo, CEO of Eric's Masters Research Institute, argues that the recent rise in US long-term Treasury yields is structural, driven by higher expected inflation, rising real rates, and debt-related term premium, so Treasury buybacks are unlikely to bring yields down sustainably. He sees the debasement trade returning as confidence in US government-backed assets weakens, with the dollar vulnerable and gold a key beneficiary. Bitcoin is also showing a new tendency to join this trade, but remains conditional and worth monitoring.

• US Treasury buybacks are signaling tools but cannot structurally lower long-term yields; only the Fed can ultimately intervene.
• The rise in 30-year yields after Fed rate cuts reflects market concern about fiscal deficits and debt sustainability.
• The debasement trade is returning as long-term yields rise while the dollar index falls.
• Non-US central banks now hold more gold than US Treasuries, supporting gold as a hard-money allocation.
• Bitcoin has begun trading with gold in the debasement theme, but its digital-gold and growth-stock character changes create timing risk.
• A neutral Fed message at Jackson Hole could push Treasury yields back toward 5.2-5.3 percent.