LULA 3 TRIPLICOU O ROMBO? A CONTA QUE O BRASIL NÃO QUER ENCARAR

Summary

José Raimundo Faria Júnior discusses Brazil's fiscal deterioration, arguing the problem is less lack of resources than poor spending allocation. He highlights oversized deficits, supersalários, abono salarial, pension indexation and state-owned management failures as drivers of fiscal risk. Those problems keep real interest rates extremely high, with Tesouro IPCA+ 2035 near 8% real, making private business hard to justify. A credible fiscal-adjustment election candidate could compress those long real yields before measures are approved.

• The fiscal deficit under Lula 3 is heading to about R$120bi/year, triple the Temer/Bolsonaro average.
• The guest argues Brazil has a spending-allocation problem, not just lack of resources.
• Supersalários plus abono salarial are roughly R$50bi/year; reallocating them could finance universal sanitation by 2033.
• BPC and pension benefits indexed to the minimum wage are described as unsustainable with Brazil's demographics.
• Selic is around 14% and Tesouro IPCA+ 2035 yields around 8% real, crowding out private business.
• A credible fiscal-adjustment election candidate would likely compress long real yields before implementing measures.
• Poor state-owned enterprise management is cited as another fiscal and governance drag.