Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix: The Warning Signal Everyone Missed | Dr. Lee Ju-wan

Summary

Dr. Lee Ju-wan warns that the AI capex growth cycle is peaking and next year could see a sharp slowdown, posing risks for Samsung and SK Hynix. He also argues that HBM's long-term importance is overestimated, as it accounts for only a small fraction of DRAM demand and conventional memory profitability has reversed. Technical challenges in HBM4 and hybrid bonding add uncertainty, while Samsung may offset some risk through foundry-HBM bundling with AMD.

• AI capex growth likely to decelerate sharply in 2026, potentially triggering a multi-year downcycle for semiconductor stocks.
• HBM currently makes up only 6% of total DRAM demand, and its pricing advantage over conventional DRAM has disappeared.
• Long-term HBM dependency will decrease as AI inference shifts to LPDDR and other memory types.
• Samsung's skip of 1b DRAM for HBM4 introduces technical risk but also enables potential bundling with foundry.
• Hybrid bonding for 16-layer HBM may be delayed, with existing bonding methods potentially sufficient.
• SK Hynix faces higher risk due to its concentrated exposure to HBM.
• Investors should monitor Big Tech capex plans in the second half of the year for confirmation of the cycle inflection.