Semiconductors Are Not Over... Now It's About Production Volume Rather Than Price | Park Seung-young, Hanwha Investment & Securities PLUS Business Division Portfolio Strategy Team Leader

Summary

Park Seung-young, Portfolio Strategy Team Leader at Hanwha Investment & Securities, explains that Korean market volatility is driven by high leverage, but the KOSPI's 20% correction already reflects an unwinding and likely marks a short-term bottom. He sees the memory semiconductor cycle shifting from price-driven to capacity expansion-driven, favoring Korean semiconductor equipment stocks, and recommends diversifying into cosmetics, financials, biotech, and Bitcoin as rate-cut plays, while avoiding single-stock leveraged ETFs and reducing REITs.

• KOSPI 20% correction from peak combined with ongoing earnings upcycle suggests a near-term low has been reached.
• Elevated volatility is driven by heavy leverage in the system, exacerbated by regulatory talk on single-stock leveraged ETFs.
• Fed rate trajectory is more dovish than market pricing; the base case is a near-term hold and eventual cuts, benefiting long-term bonds and rate-sensitive sectors.
• Memory semiconductor thesis is now about production volume (capex), not price; Korean semiconductor equipment makers are the key beneficiaries.
• Cosmetics enters an earnings upswing as year-ago tariff drags drop out; financials attract as high-dividend plays amid slowing economy and falling rates.
• Biotech is a seasonal and rate-cut beneficiary, with accumulation opportunity during summer weakness and strength expected toward year-end.
• Bitcoin is recommended for investors expecting monetary easing; REITs should be reduced as inflation worries fade.
• Single-stock leveraged ETFs are structurally flawed and should be avoided, especially in high-volatility environments.