Chesley Morning Brief: 'Wash's First FOMC' Shocks with Rate Hike Signal, Nasdaq Down 1.3%

[Chesley Morning Brief] 'Wash's First FOMC' Shocked by Interest Rate Hike Signal... Nasdaq 1.3%↓ [26/06/18]
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  June 18, 2026 at 00:16  |  1:39:02  |  Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문)
Speakers
Wang Jeong — Department Head
Kim Yuri — Analyst
Jun-hyuk — Assistant Manager, Crypto
Oh Woo-seok — Domestic Market Analyst
Choi Ho — Vice President

Summary

The Chesley Morning Brief for June 18 covers global markets shaken by a hawkish FOMC with a rate hike signal. Speakers analyze China's CCL leader Kingboard Laminates and its read-through to Korea's Doosan, the US semiconductor equipment rally defying broad market weakness, crypto downside risk from MicroStrategy's leveraged preferred structure, and Korean sector plays including MLCC upcycle at Samsung Electro-Mechanics, defense rotation into Hanwha Aerospace, and a valuation peak warning on department stores.

  • FOMC rate hike signal spooks markets but semiconductor index rallies on AI capex visibility.
  • Kingboard Laminates benefits from CCL supply shortage, price hikes could double estimates.
  • Doosan's electronic materials subsidiary seen as a Korea CCL proxy play.
  • Broadcom's custom AI chip strength and debt buyback support the stock.
  • Bitcoin faces structural risk from MicroStrategy's STRK dividend obligations, fueling potential death spiral.
  • Samsung Electro-Mechanics poised for MLCC price upcycle with massive earnings leverage.
  • Hanwha Aerospace expected to follow LIG Nex1 as L-SAM missile program shifts focus to propulsion.
  • Korean department store stocks hit historical valuation peaks, limiting further multiple expansion.
Ideas
Wang Jeong Department Head 5:27
CCL price hikes drive explosive earnings growth.
Kingboard Laminates, a global leader in CCL (copper clad laminate), is benefiting from a severe supply shortage of glass fibre, driving sharp and repeated CCL price hikes. Prices have already risen 15% in June and could increase monthly by 10%, pushing ASP beyond 370 HKD by year-end. With capex absent and Q fixed, the pricing power drives huge operating leverage. The stock trades at 15x PBR and high trailing PE but has a 90% EPS CAGR over three years, making PEG-based valuation attractive. The analyst's EPS estimates were raised recently by 7-12% and may double if monthly hikes continue.
Wang Jeong Department Head 12:03
CCL shortage benefits Doosan Electronics.
The CCL supply shortage and price surge directly benefit Korea's Doosan Group, specifically its electronic materials subsidiary (Doosan Electronic Materials), which faces a similar supply-demand setup and will likely see significant earnings improvement on the back of rising CCL prices.
Kim Yuri Analyst 15:43
AI capex cycle favors semiconductor equipment.
Despite a hawkish FOMC and broad market sell-off, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rallied 1.38%, driven by earnings visibility and AI infrastructure spending. Citi upgraded AMAT, LRCX, KLAC, arguing the wafer equipment capex cycle will run strong through 2028 due to TSMC/memory capacity constraints, Intel/Samsung foundry needs, and rising CPU demand from the AI agent shift. DRAM bottlenecks are also positive for equipment demand, making the semicon equipment cycle longer and structurally stronger.
Kim Yuri Analyst 16:34
Custom AI chips and debt buyback positive.
Broadcom rose 4.4%, supported by two drivers: (1) it produces custom AI chips (ASICs) for hyperscalers, benefiting from growing custom silicon demand in the AI agent era, and (2) it announced a debt buyback of up to $2.5bn in senior notes maturing 2023-2038, signaling financial strength and cash-flow confidence in a high-rate environment.
Kim Yuri Analyst 20:35
Retail trading surge lifts Robinhood shares.
Robinhood surged 8.7% on renewed individual investor trading activity, supported by expectations of increased retail engagement and a technical breakout that adds individual momentum to the stock.
Jun-hyuk Assistant Manager, Crypto 27:19
MSTR preferred share risk threatens Bitcoin.
Bitcoin's price is structurally vulnerable because MicroStrategy (Strategy) has been aggressively issuing perpetual preferred shares (STRK) to buy Bitcoin when ETF inflows are absent. If Bitcoin declines further, STRK's high dividend becomes unsustainable, forcing Strategy to sell Bitcoin to meet obligations, creating a death spiral that removes the only major incremental buyer. While the current downtrend may be 70% complete, this fragile setup makes Bitcoin a high-risk avoid in the near term.
Oh Woo-seok Domestic Market Analyst 74:27
L-SAM missile system benefits Hanwha Aerospace.
Hanwha Aerospace (하나에어로스페이스) should benefit as the next-stage defense play following LIG Nex1's recent rally. While LIG Nex1 dominates the Cheongung-II system, the upcoming L-SAM high-altitude missile defense system shifts key roles to propulsion and launch systems, where Hanwha Aerospace is a critical supplier. This creates a follow-on momentum trade as attention moves from interceptors to launch vehicles.
Oh Woo-seok Domestic Market Analyst 78:48
MLCC supply shortage about to boost profits.
Samsung Electro-Mechanics (삼성전기) is on the cusp of an MLCC pricing upcycle driven by a supply shortage that has barely begun. Prices have not yet risen in Q1, but historical cycles show 30% increases over 1.5–2 years. Even without price hikes, earnings are strong; an eventual ASP increase to 7 KRW could push the MLCC division's operating profit to 2tn KRW, supporting a SOTP valuation of up to 180tn KRW market cap. Demand risk is distant as price increases are still ahead.
Oh Woo-seok Domestic Market Analyst 87:04
Korean department store valuations are peaking.
Korean department store stocks (Shinsegae, Lotte Shopping, Hyundai Department Store) have rallied to historical valuation peaks (17x forward P/E for Shinsegae), matching the highest levels seen during the Chinese tourist boom of the 2010s. Further upside now depends entirely on earnings surprises driving EPS estimates higher; the multiple-expansion argument is effectively exhausted, and Japanese peers (Isetan Mitsukoshi) also topped out at 19-20x, suggesting limited room to re-rate.
Up Next

This Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문) video, published June 18, 2026, features Wang Jeong, Kim Yuri, Jun-hyuk, Oh Woo-seok discussing HK, Doosan Electronic Materials, SOX, AVGO, HOOD, BTC, 012450.KS, 009150.KS, KS. 9 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Wang Jeong, Kim Yuri, Jun-hyuk, Oh Woo-seok  · Tickers: HK, Doosan Electronic Materials, SOX, AVGO, HOOD, BTC, 012450.KS, 009150.KS, KS