$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners

Summary

Adam Buckstein of ASB Partners presents a long thesis on El Al, arguing its wartime monopoly at Ben Gurion, delevered balance sheet, owned aircraft, cheap valuation, and hard-asset support create an asymmetric setup despite geopolitical and regulatory risks. He then updates his long Stride thesis, focusing on fall enrollments, the new CEO, the Canvas LMS disruption, the lost Texas school, and why AI is not an immediate threat. Host Andrew Walker pushes back on El Al's windfall profits and balance-sheet quality and discusses Stride's possible acquisition appeal.

• El Al has become a near-monopoly at Ben Gurion since October 2023 as foreign carriers exited.
• Adam argues ELAL trades around 2x EBITDA with net cash, owned planes, and loyalty-program asset value.
• Key El Al risks discussed include customer float, government intervention, and eventual competition.
• Stride faces a CEO exit, Canvas LMS implementation issues, and the loss of a 6,000-student Texas school.
• Fall enrollments are framed as Stride's key fulcrum for the stock.
• Adam remains bullish on Stride's underpenetrated virtual public-school model and school-choice tailwinds.
• AI disruption risk is debated but Adam considers the business too complex for easy AI replacement.
• Stride acquisition/take-private speculation is discussed without a firm probability or timeline.