Chesley Morning Brief: New York Stock Market Closes Down, Nasdaq Hampered by Plunge in Semiconductor Stocks

Summary

The Chesley Morning Brief on July 2, 2026 covers a weak US session where the Nasdaq fell on a semiconductor plunge triggered by Meta’s plan to sell excess AI compute capacity. Hosts argue the sell-off is overdone, as macro remains supportive and hyperscaler capex is still rising. They highlight Korean rotation trades into undervalued shipbuilding, defense, and entertainment names, while also spotlighting a short-term Chinese delivery stock buy and a longer-term bullish call on Big Tech if chip prices normalize.

• US market drops led by semiconductors after Meta announces cloud compute sales, raising overcapacity fears.
• Hosts contend the reaction is exaggerated; JP Morgan capex data shows AI investment still expanding.
• Korean market rotation favors shipbuilding and defense stocks with single-digit P/Es and strong earnings growth.
• Korean entertainment stocks (HYBE, SM, JYP, YG) are deemed extremely undervalued ahead of strong Q2 results.
• Chinese delivery company YTO Express is recommended as a short-term trade on earnings beat and seasonal strength.
• Park Se-ik outlines a thesis that falling chip prices would boost Big Tech FCF and share prices.
• Short-term S&P 500 rebound expected as macro conditions remain benign and overreaction fades.
• Export data shows record semiconductor shipments, with a moderation in growth rates expected from September onward.