Semiconductor Crash, Not Over Yet...July is the Real Decisive Moment

Summary

The episode features NH Investment Securities Center Head Baek Chan-gyu presenting his H2 strategy amid a semiconductor-driven market correction. He argues the AI bull case remains intact, backed by earnings and manageable investment levels, and advises profit-taking at momentum peaks then re-entering current-value sectors (semis, equipment, power) while accumulating future-value themes (robotics, space, nuclear, batteries) during the summer lull. He also favors shifting some profits to US equities, using ETFs for broad exposure, and sees a KOSDAQ relief rally in July on policy. Manager So Jae-hun adds views on Hong Kong platform stocks, a global rotation into semiconductor equipment, and potential BOJ intervention on the yen.

• Baek Chan-gyu maintains AI is not a bubble, with Q2 earnings (Samsung July 7, SK Hynix July 23) expected to confirm momentum and support semiconductor stocks.
• Korean KOSPI remains in an uptrend; he recommends profit-taking at policy/earnings momentum peaks and re-accumulating during the summer lull.
• Current-value sectors favored are semiconductors, semiconductor equipment, and power equipment/machinery; future-value sectors to accumulate are robotics, aerospace, nuclear, and EV batteries.
• US equities are seen as more attractive in H2 due to improving earnings and election-year stimulus, with a recommendation to shift some profits from Korea to the US.
• Securities stocks like NH Investment are advised for profit-taking at earnings due to rate-hike overhang.
• KOSDAQ is expected to see a relief rally in July from new stock classification policy and ETF inflows, though full recovery requires biotech turnaround.
• ETFs are highlighted as an efficient way to re-enter the market instead of individual stock picking.
• So Jae-hun notes a possible bottom in Hong Kong large platforms, a global shift into semiconductor equipment (e.g., Tokyo Electron), and limited yen weakness due to potential BOJ intervention.