$LBTYK: can Liberty Global finally spin to win? | Stock Spin-Off Investing's Rich Howe

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  May 10, 2026 at 12:26  |  53:42  |  Yet Another Value Podcast
Speakers
Rich Howe — Founder, Stock Spin-Off Investing
Andrew Walker — Host, Yet Another Value Blog

Summary

Rich Howe presents a bull case for Liberty Global as a cheap sum-of-the-parts story with an upcoming Ziggo Group spin-off as a hard catalyst and a hidden investments portfolio. Andrew Walker pushes back on Liberty's management, board, capital allocation, and cable operating trends. They also discuss other spin-off and special situations including Ziff Davis, NVRI, RPD, timeshares, and Lionsgate/Starz. Key implications include potential value unlocking from asset spins and sales, but also governance and execution risk in Liberty Global and broad skepticism toward media M&A.

  • Rich Howe argues Liberty Global trades at a discount to sum-of-the-parts.
  • Ziggo Group spin is seen as a hard catalyst worth $12-$14/share.
  • Andrew challenges Liberty management, board, buybacks, and operating trends.
  • Ziff Davis is discussed as a cheap sum-of-the-parts asset-sale story.
  • Andrew highlights RPD, timeshares/VAC, and NVRI as special situations.
  • Rich outlines Lionsgate's fiscal 2027 catalyst and M&A optionality; Starz is less favored.
  • Media consolidation and private venture portfolio risks are debated.
Ideas
Rich Howe Founder, Stock Spin-Off Investing 4:56
Liberty Global sum-of-parts with Ziggo catalyst
Rich's pitch is that Liberty Global is a sum-of-the-parts story with a hard catalyst: the stock trades around $12 while the upcoming 100% spin-off of Ziggo Group should be worth $12-$14 per share. The stub has about $5 per share of cash and $10 per share of public/private investments; even haircutting the investments 50% gives roughly $10 of value, plus VMO2 worth at least ~$3, for total fair value of $25-$30. The spin forces the market to value Ziggo independently within 18 months to two years, the dividend/deleveraging support value, and cash/investments provide downside protection. Risks include weak operating trends and management/board credibility.
Rich Howe Founder, Stock Spin-Off Investing 6:20
Ziggo spin worth $12-$14 per share
Rich argues the planned 100% spin-off of Ziggo Group, the Dutch/Belgian cable business, is a hard catalyst. He estimates it is worth $12-$14 per LBTYK share today and expects a dividend to anchor value. KPN's fiber overbuild caused broadband subscriber losses, but the new CEO since May 2024 and initiatives such as pricing/promotions, contract renegotiations, simpler offerings, network reliability, and the Delta Wholesale partnership have reduced net broadband losses from about 30k per month to 8k, targeting stable-to-slightly-growing. Deleveraging from about 5.5x to 4.5x via cash flow and 1.2bn asset sales is important; if operating metrics stabilize, the public market should value it near $10-$14.
Rich Howe Founder, Stock Spin-Off Investing 43:19
Ziff Davis asset sales close discount
Rich likes and owns Ziff Davis, a sum-of-the-parts story hit by the SaaS apocalypse. The company sold its connectivity division to Accenture at a large premium, proving asset value, while remaining assets still look cheap on a pro forma basis. Management has said it will keep selling assets if the stock stays low, and cash returns such as a special dividend or buyback are a possible catalyst. He worries about continued acquisitions and unclear cash use, but sees decent alignment and a mini-activist.
Andrew Walker Host, Yet Another Value Blog 45:01
NVRI spin may lead to sale
Andrew highlights NVRI as an upcoming spin-off setup: it sold its best division and retains a rump division. He does not own it, but believes the taxable spin-off of the rump could be followed by a sale of that division, making it a special situation worth monitoring.
Andrew Walker Host, Yet Another Value Blog 47:19
RPD is cheap with activist JANA
Andrew has a tracking position in RPD, a security/communications company crushed in the SaaS apocalypse. JANA owns 10% and has permission to go to 20%, and the company recently granted management stock-price-heavy targets, signaling activist pressure and alignment. Products and customer reviews are not great, but the stock is very cheap.
Andrew Walker Host, Yet Another Value Blog 47:55
Timeshares and VAC cheap, new incentives
Andrew finds timeshares, especially VAC, interesting after a decade of underperformance. They are historical spin-offs trading cheaply, and management teams are now receiving upside-skewed stock and EBITDA targets that could improve alignment.
Andrew Walker Host, Yet Another Value Blog 49:05
Starz lacks differentiation amid tough media
Andrew is less interested in Starz. The media landscape is tough; Starz's standalone subscription model is better than a legacy cable bundle, but the asset lacks differentiation and there is not much reason for consumers to choose it.
Rich Howe Founder, Stock Spin-Off Investing 51:52
Lionsgate fiscal 2027 catalysts and M&A
Rich owns and likes Lionsgate. His thesis is a strong fiscal 2027 box-office slate, including Resurrection, Hunger Games, and the Michael Jackson movie, plus potential M&A speculation. Big tech or private equity buyers like Blackstone or Apollo could be interested, and Lionsgate is a bite-size target. He plans to sell into M&A rumors as the stock approaches management incentive targets in the mid-teens/low 20s; it is not a forever hold.
Up Next

This Yet Another Value Podcast video, published May 10, 2026, features Rich Howe, Andrew Walker discussing LBTYK, LBTYA, Ziggo Group, ZD, NVRI, RPD, VAC, Timeshares, STRZ, LION. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Rich Howe, Andrew Walker  · Tickers: LBTYK, LBTYA, Ziggo Group, ZD, NVRI, RPD, VAC, Timeshares, STRZ, LION