Fed Decision Likely to Have No Dissenters, JPM’s Berro Says

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  June 15, 2026 at 14:36  |  2:06  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Kelsey Berro — Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, JPMorgan Asset Management

Summary

Kelsey Berro, fixed income portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, analyzes the bond market reaction to the US-Iran deal and the upcoming Fed decision. She notes that 10-year Treasury yields are elevated relative to what oil prices would suggest, influenced by stronger labor data and higher real yields, with the impending Fed meeting acting as a temporary damper on a bond rally. Berro expects the Fed to hold rates and remove the easing bias with no dissenters, which could clear the way for yields to move lower.

  • US-Iran agreement announced; oil prices fell but Treasury yields declined only modestly.
  • Berro highlights that the 10-year yield is high compared to the oil price relationship, with fair value around 4.20-4.30%.
  • Stronger labor market data and higher real yields have contributed to the elevated yield level.
  • This week's Fed meeting is a key event risk that has muted the bond rally so far.
  • Berro expects no dissenters at the FOMC, with consensus to stay on hold and remove the easing bias.
  • Once the Fed event risk passes, the 10-year yield could decline toward the 4.20-4.30% range.
Ideas
Kelsey Berro Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, JPMorgan Asset Management 0:34
10-year Treasury yield will fall toward 4.20%
The 10-year Treasury yield is too high relative to where the oil price relationship since the war would imply. Specifically, if you map the current oil level to the 10-year yield based on that relationship, the fair value would be around 4.20-4.30% rather than the current 4.40%. While stronger labor data and higher real yields have pushed yields up, a key event risk is this week’s Fed meeting, where she expects no dissenters and a consensus to hold rates and remove the easing bias. Once that event risk passes, the muted bond rally should resume, allowing the 10-year yield to decline toward the 4.20-4.30% range.
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note MED
Up Next
1:59
US-Iran Deal to Breathe Life Into Lagging Parts of Markets, NewEdge’s Dawson Says
Bloomberg Markets · Jun 15
4:50
Muni Market Operating Efficiently: BofA's McQueen
Bloomberg Markets · Jun 15
0:54
Stop Selling Your Bitcoin
The Block · Jun 15
45:49
Semiconductor ETF Craze, Watch Before You Follow and Buy It | Myeong Min-jun, Park Ga-young, Choi Chang-gyu [Stock Beginner Rescue Team]
3PRO TV (삼프로TV) · Jun 15
3:24
US Orders Anthropic to Block Foreign Access to Mythos
Bloomberg Markets · Jun 15

This Bloomberg Markets video, published June 15, 2026, features Kelsey Berro discussing U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Kelsey Berro  · Tickers: U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note