Stocks & Bonds Fall as Oil Rises on Geopolitical Tensions | The Close 8/17/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  August 17, 2026 at 22:03  |  1:28:50  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Katerina Simonetti — Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management
Anurag Rana — Senior Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence
Norah Mulinda — Market Reporter, Bloomberg
Greg Boutle — U.S. Head of Equity & Derivative Strategy, BNP Paribas
Aaron Mulvihill — Head of Content, Blockworks
Kahina Van Dyke — Operating Partner, Advent International
Steven Zaccone — Citi Retail and Hardlines Analyst
Nora Wittstruck — Chief Analytical Officer for Governments, S&P Global Ratings
Derek Lewis — Former PepsiCo Beverages North America Multicultural Business and Equity Development President
Scarlet Fu — Anchor, Bloomberg Television
Carol Massar — Anchor, Bloomberg

Summary

Bloomberg's The Close covers a risk-off session where stocks and bonds fall while oil rises on Middle East tensions. Guests favor financials, semiconductors, small caps, AI power infrastructure, stablecoins, and Home Depot, while flagging JetBlue and data center real estate risks. The program also discusses AI adoption, AI financing concentration, retail earnings, and consumer pressure.

  • Stocks and bonds declined while oil rose on geopolitical tensions; the 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest since 2007.
  • Morgan Stanley's Katerina Simonetti favors financials and investment-grade intermediate bonds.
  • BNP Paribas' Greg Boutle is bullish on semiconductors and sees small/mid caps as a contrarian opportunity.
  • JPMorgan's Aaron Mulvihill likes AI power-layer infrastructure but is cautious on data center real estate.
  • Shopify's agentic commerce positioning and Home Depot's bottoming thesis were highlighted.
  • JetBlue was flagged as facing balance-sheet risk from elevated fuel prices.
  • Stablecoins were discussed as a cross-border commerce adoption opportunity.
Ideas
Katerina Simonetti Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management 4:13
Favor financials for AI monetization and dividends
She favors financials because large financials are best positioned to monetize AI, geopolitical oil/inflation pressures support higher-for-longer rates and profitability, and the sector offers dividends plus appreciation.
Katerina Simonetti Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management 5:56
Buy investment-grade intermediate bonds now
Higher rates present opportunities in fixed income; she recommends investment-grade intermediate bonds as a sweet spot for high-quality, higher-paying bonds to diversify portfolios, expecting inflation to eventually fall and the Fed to cut rates.
Katerina Simonetti Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management 8:25
Stay global, lean U.S. equities
The AI productivity story is a broad global economy story, so she believes global exposure matters while leaning on the U.S. and staying opportunistic across sectors rather than concentrating in one AI company.
Anurag Rana Senior Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence 17:59
Shopify best positioned for agentic commerce
Shopify is one of the best-positioned software companies for AI and agentic commerce because it has invested aggressively, gained market share from Salesforce/Adobe/Oracle, has a catalog and payment system, and its pace of innovation far exceeds peers.
Anurag Rana Senior Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence 19:45
Enterprise software not AI-disrupted, long-run benefit
He argues enterprise software such as Workday is not being disrupted by AI; the growth slowdown reflects customers not hiring and lower seat purchases, and it should benefit in the long run, though growth needs to reaccelerate before investors get comfortable.
Norah Mulinda Market Reporter, Bloomberg 32:59
JetBlue balance-sheet risk from fuel prices
JetBlue faces disproportionate risk from elevated jet fuel prices because of its elevated debt load; Seaport downgraded it to neutral and sees a downside scenario where the company becomes worthless if fuel prices stay high.
Greg Boutle U.S. Head of Equity & Derivative Strategy, BNP Paribas 38:40
Semis bullish on clean positioning, catalyst
He is bullish on semiconductors because positioning was cleaned out in late July, the group remains well off highs, and NVIDIA earnings provide a key catalyst, with the semis potentially having a catch-up trade.
Greg Boutle U.S. Head of Equity & Derivative Strategy, BNP Paribas 41:02
Small/mid caps contrarian right-tail opportunity
He sees small and mid-caps as a contrarian opportunity: investors worry about their negative correlation to rising rates, but if higher rates are driven by a stronger economy the Russell 2000 could have a fatter right tail.
Aaron Mulvihill Head of Content, Blockworks 58:32
Prefer AI power layer lower-volatility play
He likes the power layer of AI infrastructure as a lower-volatility AI-adjacent investment because electricity demand is supported not only by AI but also by EVs and other parts of the economy.
Aaron Mulvihill Head of Content, Blockworks 59:23
Avoid data centers, favor traditional CRE
He is cautious on data center and digital real estate because of overbuilding and obsolescence risk, while seeing traditional commercial real estate as attractive right now.
Aaron Mulvihill Head of Content, Blockworks 59:23
Avoid data centers, favor traditional CRE
He is cautious on data center and digital real estate because of overbuilding and obsolescence risk, while seeing traditional commercial real estate as attractive right now.
Aaron Mulvihill Head of Content, Blockworks 61:22
Small/mid private equity growth stories attractive
He favors small to mid cap private equity, especially consumer organic growth stories, because many such high-growth companies are no longer listing publicly and remain in private markets.
Kahina Van Dyke Operating Partner, Advent International 69:45
Stablecoins enable cross-border commerce adoption
She is a long-time stablecoin believer because they enable instantaneous, secure cross-border currency movement without FX risk, democratize international commerce, and are reaching the cusp of broader adoption.
Steven Zaccone Citi Retail and Hardlines Analyst 83:19
Buy Home Depot for multiyear improvement
He has a Buy on Home Depot expecting a slight sales and earnings beat, with the home improvement industry bottoming after years of negative comps and a multiyear improvement as housing turnover eventually recovers.
Up Next

This Bloomberg Markets video, published August 17, 2026, features Katerina Simonetti, Anurag Rana, Norah Mulinda, Greg Boutle, Aaron Mulvihill, Kahina Van Dyke, Steven Zaccone discussing XLF, Investment grade intermediate bonds, SPY, SHOP, WDAY, JBLU, SMH, IWM, Power layer infrastructure, Data center real estate, XLRE, Small to mid cap private equity, STABLECOINS, HD. 14 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Katerina Simonetti, Anurag Rana, Norah Mulinda, Greg Boutle, Aaron Mulvihill, Kahina Van Dyke, Steven Zaccone  · Tickers: XLF, Investment grade intermediate bonds, SPY, SHOP, WDAY, JBLU, SMH, IWM, Power layer infrastructure, Data center real estate, XLRE, Small to mid cap private equity, STABLECOINS, HD