Why Iran's Fate Lies in the Revolutionary Guards' Hands

Summary

Bloomberg's Patrick Sykes explains that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is central to the country's political future. The report lays out scenarios including an IRGC-linked strongman, a military coup, or slow decay into chaos, with possible security-force defections and US intervention as wildcards. It frames the IRGC as both the main force suppressing protests and the institution with the most to lose from change.

• IRGC is the most effective force suppressing protests and has much to lose from change.
• Possible outcomes include an IRGC-linked strongman, outright military coup, or slow decay into chaos.
• Former IRGC figures now hold senior civilian posts, including foreign minister and parliament speaker.
• IRGC is far stronger than Iran's conventional military.
• Security-force defections, especially from IRGC, are a key swing factor.
• Trump and possible US military intervention are described as wildcards; IRGC would likely be targeted.
• June Israel war cited as example of IRGC missiles reaching Tel Aviv and a US base in Qatar.
• No explicit tradeable investment recommendation is provided.