Name: Stocks Drop, Oil Jumps After Trump Says Ceasefire with Iran Is "Over" | Bloomberg Brief 07/08/2026
Uploaded: 2026-07-08T12:08:15+00:00
Duration: 2604 s

Speakers

Matt Bloxham — Head of Research, The Block

Mark McCormick — Editor-in-Chief, CoinDesk

Vonnie Quinn — Anchor, Bloomberg

London-based Bloomberg — Reporter

Tom Metcalf — Bloomberg Reporter

Summary

President Trump declares the US-Iran ceasefire over after ordering strikes and revoking oil waivers, sending oil prices sharply higher and equity futures lower. Asian markets tumble, with South Korea’s KOSPI entering a bear market as investors rotate from expensive chipmakers into cheaper Chinese tech stocks like Alibaba. BMO’s Mark McCormick details the bullish dollar outlook, calling for further gains in the DXY and USD/JPY while warning on gold and EM carry trades.

Trump says the Iran ceasefire is over; US struck 80 Iranian sites and revoked oil waivers, escalating Middle East tensions.
Oil surges — WTI nears $75, Brent toward $80 — and European gas futures jump over 5% as Strait of Hormuz shipping risks return.
US equity futures drop over 1%, yields rise, and the VIX spikes amid the geopolitical shock.
South Korea’s KOSPI falls 5%, entering a bear market, as the AI trade rotates away from chipmakers like Samsung and SK hynix.
Funds are shifting into undervalued Chinese internet stocks Alibaba and Tencent on improving e-commerce and earnings momentum.
Mark McCormick expects broad US dollar strength to DXY 103, driven by sticky inflation, hawkish Fed, and geopolitical safe-haven demand.
He recommends shorting gold and sees USD/JPY rising to 160-165, while warning that EM carry trades like the Colombian peso are at risk.
French bonds come under pressure after Le Pen was cleared to run; UniCredit takes a big step toward Commerzbank control.

Ideas

Matt Bloxham Head of Research, The Block 15:28

Shift from Korean chips to Chinese tech.

The AI trade is rotating away from Korean chipmakers like Samsung and SK hynix because AI demand expectations have caught up with results, leaving limited incremental upside surprise. Money is flowing into undervalued Chinese internet stocks such as Alibaba and Tencent, where earnings momentum is improving, e-commerce activity is picking up, and market expectations remain subdued, offering better value.

Matt Bloxham Head of Research, The Block 15:28

Shift from Korean chips to Chinese tech.

Mark McCormick Editor-in-Chief, CoinDesk 28:29

Avoid Colombian peso carry trade.

Avoid Colombian peso / LatAm EM carry exposure: broad dollar rally and higher US rates are expected to pressure Latin American currencies, with Colombian peso specifically flagged.

Mark McCormick Editor-in-Chief, CoinDesk 28:49

Broad dollar strength to DXY 103.

The US dollar is set to strengthen broadly over the next three months, targeting DXY 103, driven by a hawkish Fed focused on sticky inflation, accelerating US economic data, higher real rates, and renewed geopolitical tensions that reinforce the dollar's safe-haven status. Dollar positions are no longer expensive relative to value models.

Mark McCormick Editor-in-Chief, CoinDesk 29:12

Short gold as real rates rise.

Avoid GLD/gold exposure: speaker says gold is unattractive as real rates rise and the dollar strengthens, with room for another leg lower; bearish view without explicit short.

Mark McCormick Editor-in-Chief, CoinDesk 31:34

Long USDJPY to 160-165.

USD/JPY is undervalued and should trade in the 160-165 range because real rate differentials are widening in favor of the dollar. The Fed is hawkish while the Bank of Japan remains far behind the curve and is reinforcing fiscal dominance. Intervention risk is not serious until at least 165.

Stocks Drop, Oil Jumps After Trump Says Ceasefire with Iran Is "Over" | Bloomberg Brief 07/08/2026

Summary

Ideas

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