Trump Claims Hormuz Control, US CPI Data on Deck | The Opening Trade 8/12/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  August 12, 2026 at 11:04  |  1:35:35  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Bilal — Head of Market Strategy, Macro Hive
Mark Cudmore — Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist
Henry Allen — Macro Strategist, Deutsche Bank Research
Leonhard Birnbaum — CEO, E.ON
Mark Schneider — CIO, Non-Traditional Strategies, Pimco
Adam Linton — Markets Live Strategist, Bloomberg
Anthony DiPaola — Reporter, Bloomberg (Energy)
Guy Johnson — Anchor, Bloomberg
Tom Mackenzie — Anchor, Bloomberg

Summary

The episode covers strong AI earnings boosting tech stocks, persistent Hormuz disruption lifting oil prices, and the upcoming US CPI print. Guests express specific bullish views on tech, gold, UK equities, and fixed income, while warning of higher US Treasury yields and sustained high European gas prices.

  • Tech stocks surge on CoreWeave and Super Micro earnings beats, reviving AI trade.
  • Strait of Hormuz disruption continues with no deal imminent, Brent near $90.
  • US CPI data due, with some expecting inflation to moderate and potentially pause Fed hikes.
  • Japanese yields seen rising as policy rates are too low; carry trade persists and yen stays weak.
  • UK economy shows resilience, challenging stagnation narrative and supporting equities.
  • Gold supported by central bank buying and returning Chinese retail demand, eyeing $4,500.
  • Fixed income offers attractive 7% yields on high-quality intermediate portfolios.
  • European TTF gas prices to remain elevated far above pre-war levels, pressuring energy costs.
Ideas
Bilal Head of Market Strategy, Macro Hive 14:19
Buy dips in AI/tech stocks.
AI earnings (CoreWeave, Super Micro) validate the multi-year AI infrastructure build-out. The tech rebound shows the thesis is intact, and any corrections in AI/tech stocks should be bought.
NDX MED
Bilal Head of Market Strategy, Macro Hive 15:38
Short JGBs, yields will rise.
Japanese policy rates are far below other major central banks despite Japan's inflation problem. This huge mispricing means Japanese yields must rise significantly, so short JGBs.
JGBUX MED
Bilal Head of Market Strategy, Macro Hive 16:38
Carry trade persists, short yen.
The carry trade is here to stay for a while because Japanese yields won't rise enough to disrupt it, and uncertainty leads investors to hold carry trades, keeping the yen weak.
FXY MED
Leonhard Birnbaum CEO, E.ON 31:41
European gas prices stay elevated.
European TTF gas prices around 60 are more than 2.5-3 times pre-crisis levels. The market will find equilibrium only at an elevated price level, and it will not return to pre-war levels in the near term.
Dutch TTF Natural Gas MED
Mark Cudmore Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist 39:15
US yields to soar past 5%.
Strong global growth, massive fiscal spending, and persistent inflation pressures will drive US yields much higher. 5% on the 10-year will be a floor next year, and 30-year yields will push through 6%.
IEF TLT HIGH
Mark Cudmore Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist 40:43
UK economy resilient, buy UK equities.
The UK has been very impressive longer term, reclaiming 5th spot in global GDP and challenging the narrative that the UK is doomed and stagnant, supporting a bullish view on UK assets.
UKX MED
Mark Schneider CIO, Non-Traditional Strategies, Pimco 82:13
Fixed income offers amazing yields.
Fixed income offers astounding opportunities. A high-quality, intermediate-duration portfolio with a 4-year average maturity can yield about 7%, and investors should be running to fixed income.
Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index MED
Anthony DiPaola Reporter, Bloomberg (Energy) 85:07
Oil prices to rise on disruption.
No deal is expected soon to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Supply drawdowns will continue, and oil prices are likely to remain elevated with upside risk as the situation stays in limbo.
BNO MED
Adam Linton Markets Live Strategist, Bloomberg 92:25
Gold to $4,500 on strong demand.
Gold is supported by persistent central bank buying (e.g., PBoC) and returning Chinese retail demand. Even a hot CPI report is not damaging, and gold could move toward $4,500.
GLD MED
Up Next
4:35:08
[August 12th PM Broadcast Full View] KOSDAQ up 20% in August alone, today up and down... What is tomorrow's fate?
3PRO TV (삼프로TV) · Aug 12
26:15
[#RealMarket] As Volatility Index Plummets, Foreign Capital Pours In "Welcome Surge, Be Careful Tomorrow" / Too Many Stocks Look Poised to Rise | Hwang Yu-hyeon, Team Leader
815 Money Talk (815머니톡) · Aug 12
47:04
Coreweave, Super Micro Computer Earnings Fuel Global Tech Rally | Daybreak Europe 8/12/2026
Bloomberg Markets · Aug 12
1:54
Khamenei's Absence Leaves Iran in Power Vacuum
Bloomberg Markets · Aug 12
46:10
The Growth Strategy Trapping The Fed | Darius Dale
Forward Guidance · Aug 12

This Bloomberg Markets video, published August 12, 2026, features Bilal, Leonhard Birnbaum, Mark Cudmore, Mark Schneider, Anthony DiPaola, Adam Linton discussing NDX, JGBUX, FXY, Dutch TTF Natural Gas, IEF, TLT, UKX, Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index, BNO, GLD. 9 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Bilal, Leonhard Birnbaum, Mark Cudmore, Mark Schneider, Anthony DiPaola, Adam Linton  · Tickers: NDX, JGBUX, FXY, Dutch TTF Natural Gas, IEF, TLT, UKX, Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index, BNO, GLD