Name: 3 Stocks To Buy (& 3 Stocks To Sell) Before Jan. 2026 Ends
Uploaded: 2026-01-12T10:55:00+00:00
Duration: 2110 s

Speakers

Paul Gabrail — Host / Value Investor

Summary

Paul Gabrail reviews three analyst-favored value stocks—Amazon, Campbell, and Clorox—and three analyst sell candidates—Intuitive Surgical, Tesla, and Walmart—using the Everything Money fundamental process. He emphasizes price versus value, margin of safety, and discipline in an expensive, optimistic market. He finds Amazon attractive enough to research, Campbell mixed because of debt, and Clorox unattractive at current prices, while agreeing that Intuitive Surgical, Tesla, and Walmart are overvalued at current levels.

Market is expensive and optimism high entering 2026; price paid matters.
Amazon's scale, AWS, and reinvestment support a modest long thesis.
Campbell is cheap and defensive but high debt creates caution.
Clorox lacks growth and its dividend consumes free cash flow.
Intuitive Surgical is a wide-moat business but trades at rich multiples.
Tesla is viewed as an overvalued car company with limited margin support.
Walmart is expensive for a slow-growth retailer with thin margins.
Paul stresses process, fundamentals, and margin of safety over analyst price targets.

Ideas

Paul Gabrail Host / Value Investor 2:24

Amazon attractive on scale and AWS

Amazon is more than e-commerce: it owns one of the world's strongest logistics networks and the highly profitable AWS cloud business. As Amazon has scaled, margins and cash flow have improved, and heavy capital expenditures are being reinvested for growth. Analysts expect revenue and earnings to grow more than 10% annually over the next five years, and Paul's stock analyzer gives a middle intrinsic value of about $226 and an expected return of roughly 8.6% from current levels, enough to justify further research.

Paul Gabrail Host / Value Investor 9:53

Intuitive Surgical great business, valuation too high

Intuitive Surgical dominates robotic-assisted surgery with its Da Vinci systems and is a high-quality, capital-light business with a wide moat, strong margins, and net cash. However, it trades around 90 times free cash flow and 75 times earnings, and Paul's stock analyzer values it far below its $565 share price even after optimistic assumptions. Paul agrees with analysts and would avoid the stock at this valuation.

Paul Gabrail Host / Value Investor 15:02

Campbell cheap but high debt concerns

Campbell is a defensive, wide-moat packaged-food company with steady demand, well-known brands, a 5.6% dividend, and a cheap 12x free cash flow/14x earnings valuation. However, Paul is stuck because it carries about $11 billion in net debt against roughly $700-$800 million of annual free cash flow, margins and returns on capital are weak or declining, and revenue growth is minimal.

Paul Gabrail Host / Value Investor 20:48

Tesla overvalued car company; downside likely

UBS reiterated a sell rating with a $247 target implying roughly 50% downside and cut Q4 delivery estimates on weaker demand after federal tax credits ended. Paul argues Tesla is still fundamentally a car company—about 95% of revenue comes from cars—with auto-like margins and a price/sales ratio around 17x versus roughly 0.5-1x for peers, while BYD has passed it in global EV sales. Even aggressive stock-analyzer assumptions only get to about $180 in the middle, well below the roughly $450 price, and his base case values it near $55; he believes Tesla will be lower in 10 years.

Paul Gabrail Host / Value Investor 26:55

Clorox unexciting; wait for lower price

Clorox owns durable household brands and earns high returns on capital, but growth is negligible, the 4.7% dividend consumes essentially all free cash flow, and the stock analyzer values it around $77 in the middle versus a $100 current price, even with the dividend implying only about a 5.38% return. Paul disagrees with the analyst 50%-upside call and would wait for the low price or lower, saying there are much better options.

Paul Gabrail Host / Value Investor 31:12

Walmart overvalued; avoid at current price

Walmart is a great company, but it trades near 40x earnings, a historically high multiple for a slow-growth retailer, exceeds peers like Target and even Amazon on valuation, and its earnings yield is below risk-free Treasuries. Margins are only about 3%, free cash flow is stagnant, and Paul's stock analyzer gives a middle value around $40 with a negative 3% DCF return, so he agrees with sell-rated analysts and would not buy the stock at current levels.

3 Stocks To Buy (& 3 Stocks To Sell) Before Jan. 2026 Ends

Summary

Ideas

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