Pimco's Clarida on US Economy, Future of the Federal Reserve

Summary

Pimco's Richard Clarida says the US economy is in a good place, with resilient growth, contained inflation, and a continued tech capex boom, though the recovery is uneven. He discusses the Fed chair race, saying Waller, Warsh, and Rieder are credible candidates, and expects Lisa Cook to remain a Fed governor. He remains confident in Fed independence and says the bond market is a key support. He also previews Powell's likely handling of DOJ subpoena questions.

• Clarida describes the US economy as solid, with 2025 growth likely above 2%.
• Inflation has been flat and did not rise materially due to tariffs.
• Tech capital spending and the 2026 fiscal impulse are seen as positive economic drivers.
• He notes a K-shaped economy, with uneven conditions outside tech and asset-owning households.
• He views Waller, Warsh, and Rieder as effective potential Fed chairs.
• He sees a high likelihood Lisa Cook remains a Fed governor.
• He remains confident in Fed independence, supported by bond-market discipline.
• He expects Powell to give a brief answer on DOJ subpoenas.