China is chasing us with its life on the line" And its goal is HBM...! | Baek Seung-hye, Hana Securities Research Center Research Fellow [Double Up]

Summary

Hana Securities Research Fellow Baek Seung-hye discusses China's ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), which is set to IPO on the STAR Market in late July or early August. He outlines CXMT's status as the only Chinese firm developing HBM3 and above, its capacity expansion plans, and the competitive implications for Samsung and SK hynix. His main investment takeaway is a positive view on the STAR Market ETF as a way to benefit from the CXMT listing catalyst.

• CXMT is China's only memory maker developing HBM3 and aims to skip directly to HBM3 due to US export restrictions.
• IPO timing is expected for late July to early August 2025 on China's Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR Market).
• CXMT already produces DDR5 at scale and its recent profitability surge was driven by soaring DRAM prices.
• CXMT's wafer capacity will reach about 350k wpm by end-2025, close to Micron but still half or less than Samsung and SK hynix.
• The near-term supply overshoot from CXMT is seen as limited, with no market-disrupting risk within a year.
• Chinese GPU makers like Huawei need domestic HBM to challenge Nvidia, so CXMT must succeed.
• Direct foreign buying of CXMT shares is restricted, but STAR Market ETFs provide an accessible investment avenue.
• The guest personally recommends investing in the STAR Market on the back of the CXMT IPO catalyst.