Name: General Market Thoughts and the Case for Change at Humm with Jeremy Raper
Uploaded: 2026-01-21T14:43:48+00:00
Duration: 2649 s

Speakers

Jeremy Raper — Investor

Andrew Walker — Host, Yet Another Value Blog

Summary

Jeremy Raper joins Andrew Walker to discuss his decision to stop publishing a paid investment blog, the opportunity set in Japan and the UK, and his activist campaign at Australian non-bank lender HUM Group. Jeremy favors smaller Japanese deep-value and event situations, is wary of UK small-cap governance and minority takeouts, and argues HUM needs board renewal to unlock value. The episode also touches on US event-market crowding and a PRTH governance/takeout setup Andrew is tracking.

Jeremy Raper explains why he stopped writing a paid blog, citing process distortion and audience pressure.
He sees Japan's event/deep-value opportunity as strongest in smaller, non-Tokyo, family-run companies.
He views UK equities as cheap but warns that weak governance and coercive takeouts hurt small-cap minorities.
He discusses his roughly 5.7% HUM Group stake and EGM campaign for full board renewal.
He criticizes the HUM chairman's lowball bid, lack of standstill, and alleged governance failures.
A third-party bid for HUM at 77c and potential board-change catalysts are discussed.
Andrew discloses a small PRTH tracking position as a similar chairman-lowball setup.
The conversation also covers US event-market competition and online writer crowding.

Ideas

Jeremy Raper Investor 13:06

Japan small-cap deep value still attractive.

Japan's event/deep-value opportunity remains attractive but is now concentrated in smaller companies, especially sub-$1bn or sub-$500-700m names outside Tokyo, often family-run and slower to adopt TSE governance, ROE, and PBR reforms. Larger-cap activist targets are late innings, but smaller Japanese companies still trade at deep discounts to book, net cash, or negative EV, so even if reform takes longer or only partial cash is returned, the risk/reward is favorable.

Jeremy Raper Investor 19:12

UK small-cap governance undermines cheap valuations.

UK stocks are statistically cheap, but the UK governance framework is weak enough that opportunistic management teams can use majority-minority takeouts with cash plus onerous rollover options to coerce minorities and destroy value even when minority shareholders resist. Jeremy cites Cambria Automotive, three or four similar situations, poor regulator or independent-expert outcomes, and his own bad UK track record, so he is wary of UK small-cap event and takeout situations despite cheap valuations.

Jeremy Raper Investor 25:52

HUM governance fix could unlock value.

Jeremy owns 5.7% of HUM Group, has a concert party stake around 9%, and is calling a Feb 19 EGM to remove three of four directors, including the chairman, and add himself and another nominee. He argues HUM is a good company with a strong commercial asset-backed finance segment, but poor board governance under a quasi-controlling chairman has led to a lowball 58c buyout attempt against ~76-77c tangible assets, no standstill, governance failures, and no guarantee against a future undervalued offer. Board renewal could unlock value through better governance, excess cash return, a proper dividend policy, strategic review, and examination of misconduct; a third-party 77c bid is also in the background.

Andrew Walker Host, Yet Another Value Blog 30:37

PRTH lowball chairman offer setup.

Andrew discloses a small tracking position in PRTH and describes it as a similar governance/takeout setup to HUM: after PRTH fell from about $8 to $5 on an earnings miss, the chairman, who owns 60%, immediately offered $6, only a 20% premium to the dumped price, prompting minority-shareholder objections. It is a setup to monitor for minority-shareholder and governance risk.

This Yet Another Value Podcast video, published January 21, 2026, features Jeremy Raper, Andrew Walker discussing Japanese small/mid-cap value equities, UK small-cap event/takeout equities, HUM.AX, PRTH. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Jeremy Raper, Andrew Walker · Tickers: Japanese small/mid-cap value equities, UK small-cap event/takeout equities, HUM.AX, PRTH

General Market Thoughts and the Case for Change at Humm with Jeremy Raper

Summary

Ideas

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