Rombo histórico, dívida crescendo, o ajuste fiscal é inevitável

Summary

Fernando Ulrich analyzes Brazil's deteriorating fiscal situation, highlighting a record primary deficit in March 2025, rising public debt reaching 92% of GDP (international methodology), and a worsening debt profile with nearly half indexed to the Selic rate. He argues the current fiscal framework is unsustainable and that a meaningful fiscal adjustment will be forced in 2027, either by government decision or market pressure.

• Record primary deficit of R$73.8 billion in March 2025, the largest for that month since the 1990s.
• Public debt reached 80.1% of GDP under Brazilian methodology and 92% under international methodology.
• Government spending is growing faster than revenue, even with record tax collection.
• Nearly half of the public debt is indexed to the Selic rate, increasing government interest costs when rates rise.
• Prefixed debt has fallen to only 22% of total, reducing debt management flexibility.
• Ulrich concludes a fiscal adjustment is unavoidable in 2027, regardless of which government is in power.
• The analysis includes a call to action for viewers to seek professional financial advice for portfolio allocation.