A REVOLUÇÃO SILENCIOSA DO VAREJO, LOGÍSTICA E DO E-COMMERCE NO BRASIL | Market Makers #357

Summary

Fernando Crestana of BTG Pactual discusses the structural growth opportunity in Brazilian logistics real estate driven by rising e-commerce penetration, low vacancy, and constrained supply. He highlights BTG's logistics FII BTLG11 and fund-of-funds BTHF as investment vehicles. The conversation also touches on the deep discount in corporate office FIIs and the dynamics of hotel and shopping FIIs.

• E-commerce penetration in Brazil is only 10-12% of retail, with significant growth potential toward 20-25%.
• National vacancy in logistics warehouses fell from 25% to 8% over five years and is expected to stay low.
• 60% of new logistics projects in São Paulo are pre-leased, signaling strong demand.
• The total modern logistics park in Brazil (30M sqm) is small relative to Mexico and the US.
• High interest rates and a closed capital market limit new supply, supporting rental growth.
• BTG's logistics fund BTLG11 is concentrated in São Paulo and trades at a premium to NAV.
• BTHF, a fund of funds, benefits from dual discounts in the FII market.
• Corporate office FIIs trade at a 30% discount to book value with a 10% dividend yield.