Ideas
Quality RWA yield drives Kamino growth
Current RWA demand on Kamino/Prime is driven by looping. Marius doubts users will permanently accept 2.5-3% low-risk DeFi yields, and Solana users especially want 11-12% yield if they understand the asset. In the Prime market, average looping multiple is about 5.6, so loopers take junior first-loss risk while senior lenders earn lower yield with protection; there is more senior demand. Unlike ETH/SOL, RWA looping requires accepting duration and using pricing/LTV/liquidation penalties to incentivize liquidation, but that duration risk is why the yield is attractive.
Solana attracts higher-yield RWA credit
Solana's architecture can scale and its user base has a higher risk appetite than Ethereum's; users are keen to earn 11-12% yield if they understand the asset. With quality RWA assets like Figure's Prime coming onchain, Solana is well positioned to become a home for onchain credit origination and RWA looping.
HELOC Prime offers quality onchain yield
Reid distinguishes credit origination from credit intermediation. He prefers direct asset-backed origination like Figure's HELOC model, where lenders have ownership/security against liquid assets and an onchain lien registry prevents double-pledging, over private credit fund intermediation, which is opaque on underwriting and marks and controlled by managers. He cites Tricolor and First Brands as examples of double-pledging/fraud risks in intermediation.
HELOC Prime offers quality onchain yield
Figure's Prime/democratized Prime offers tokenized HELOC-backed credit, which is productive U.S. homeowner debt with real interest cash flows rather than crypto leverage or supply-demand-driven yield. Figure originates onchain with scale and TradFi securitization expertise, and its lien registry prevents double-pledging, making HELOCs a high-quality, scalable onchain credit asset.
Tokenized private credit is opaque, risky
Marius is extremely skeptical of tokenized private credit because it often operates as a black box: users cannot see the prospectus, underwriting, or mark-to-market, and there is adverse selection in simply tokenizing any asset. He contrasts this with transparent DeFi collateral on open-source smart contracts and on-chain lien registries that prevent double-pledging, so generic tokenized private credit is unattractive.
Prefer asset-backed origination over private credit
Reid distinguishes credit origination from credit intermediation. He prefers direct asset-backed origination like Figure's HELOC model, where lenders have ownership/security against liquid assets and an onchain lien registry prevents double-pledging, over private credit fund intermediation, which is opaque on underwriting and marks and controlled by managers. He cites Tricolor and First Brands as examples of double-pledging/fraud risks in intermediation.
Onchain RWAs should keep growing
The onchain RWA economy is inverted versus the real economy: stablecoins dominate onchain while dollars relative to Treasuries are reversed offchain, so stablecoins should be backed by more RWAs. Figure aims to unlock large securitized credit assets like credit card receivables, auto, HELOCs, and first-lien mortgages that are hidden behind bank balance sheets or institutional moats, implying growth in onchain RWAs.
This Bell Curve video, published April 21, 2026,
features Marius Ciubotariu, Reid Simon
discussing KMNO, SOL, FIGR, Democratized Prime, Tokenized private credit, Private credit funds, Onchain RWAs.
7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Marius Ciubotariu,
Reid Simon
· Tickers:
KMNO,
SOL,
FIGR,
Democratized Prime,
Tokenized private credit,
Private credit funds,
Onchain RWAs
