Supply and demand, interest rates, war, everything is tangled. How can we escape? | Hak-joo Lee, Hana Securities Wonju Branch Deputy Manager

Summary

Lee Hak-joo, Deputy Manager at Hana Securities Wonju Branch, discusses the recent sharp KOSPI sell-off and argues it is driven by supply/demand and sentiment, not fundamentals. He sees a V-shaped bounce as possible if psychology recovers, potentially catalyzed by policy announcements like a short-selling ban. He presents data showing KOSPI’s extreme undervaluation and historical odds strongly favor a rebound in August. On SK hynix, he explains the drop stems from disappointment over paused shareholder returns due to SEC quiet-period rules, and expects bullish catalyst after August 5th. He also provides risk-management tips for margin traders.

• KOSPI decline is supply-driven and psychological, not a fundamental crisis, opening the door to a V-shaped recovery.
• Potential government measures such as a short-selling ban or stabilization fund could act as the sentiment trigger, just as they did during COVID.
• Current KOSPI valuation implies a 40% earnings collapse or a 9x P/E, which is detached from analyst expectations of earnings growth.
• Historically, after similar monthly drops KOSPI rebounded the next month 80–90% of the time; August shows a pattern of promise.
• SK hynix stock is suffering from delayed shareholder return policy due to SEC Rule 174 during its ADR quiet period, but management has already indicated intent, pointing to a positive catalyst after early August.
• The speaker urges calm, maintaining a positive mindset, and gives practical advice on managing margin loans, credit grades, and avoiding forced liquidations.