Name: Accrued Interest's Simeon McMillan on $VSNT and the evolving media space
Uploaded: 2026-03-14T20:41:08+00:00
Duration: 3481 s

Speakers

Simeon McMillan — Media analyst, Accrued Interest

Andrew Walker — Host, Yet Another Value Blog

Summary

Andrew Walker and Simeon McMillan discuss Comcast's Versant spin-off, the economics of cable networks, sports rights, and the broader media landscape. Simeon argues Versant is structurally challenged by the 2028 separation from NBC's ad-sales and carriage support, though GolfNow/GolfPass is a hidden asset. They also debate Netflix's disciplined sports-rights strategy, YouTube/YouTube TV's growing power, CNBC's disruption risk, NFL rights inflation, and the skeptical case for the Paramount-Warner Bros. combination.

Versant is seen as a late-cycle cable spin-off with overearning financials and 2028 ad-sales/carriage risks.
GolfNow/GolfPass may be an underappreciated sticky software asset inside Versant.
Netflix is viewed as a consistent media winner with disciplined sports-rights cherry-picking.
YouTube and YouTube TV are key disruptors in streaming and carriage negotiations.
CNBC is a trophy asset but faces podcast and linear-bundle disruption.
NFL rights are existential for several broadcasters, likely keeping bidding intense.
Traditional media faces accelerating cord-cutting and weak audience share at Paramount/WBD.
The Paramount-Warner Bros. merger is viewed skeptically, with breakup risk.

Ideas

Simeon McMillan Media analyst, Accrued Interest 9:05

VSNT overearns; 2028 separation hurts

Versant (VSNT) should underperform because its financials are overearning under NBC's protective ad-sales umbrella; the 2028 separation removes Olympics/Super Bowl ad leverage and forces carriage renegotiations without NBC, while its sports rights are leftover NBC assets likely to be lost or renewed poorly. Free cash flow is falling 15-20% annually, strategic M&A is restricted until the tax-free spin rules expire in 2028, and after a dividend-driven rerating to around $35-36, Simeon conservatively values it near $27/share. The golf software asset is a hidden offset but not enough to offset core deterioration.

Andrew Walker Host, Yet Another Value Blog 43:05

Fox needs NFL to survive

Fox is existentially dependent on NFL rights; without the NFL, the Fox broadcast network would likely cease to be relevant or go away, so the upcoming NFL renewal is an existential event that forces Fox to bid aggressively even if the economics worsen.

Simeon McMillan Media analyst, Accrued Interest 49:44

Netflix disciplined sports strategy wins

Netflix is the most consistent media company and is disciplined in sports rights: it cherry-picks high-juice events like the Home Run Derby or Japan World Baseball Classic rights instead of bidding for low-margin full-season packages, so skepticism about its sports strategy is misplaced.

Simeon McMillan Media analyst, Accrued Interest 56:29

Legacy media lacks audience; merger fails

Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery are unattractive because their TV audience share is stuck at about 1.5% for WBD and under 2% for Paramount; without audience there is no durable value, and financial engineering is not a strategy. Simeon puts -10 odds on the Paramount-Warner combination succeeding and expects the question to be when a breakup comes.

This Yet Another Value Podcast video, published March 14, 2026, features Simeon McMillan, Andrew Walker discussing VSNT, FOX, NFLX, PSKY, WBD. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Simeon McMillan, Andrew Walker · Tickers: VSNT, FOX, NFLX, PSKY, WBD

Accrued Interest's Simeon McMillan on $VSNT and the evolving media space

Summary

Ideas

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